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Week 21 - 2013
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Week 21 -2013 | From May. 20 to May. 24, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - May. 20
Tue - May. 21
Wed - May. 22
Thu - May. 23
Fri - May. 24
         
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Economic Data for Week 21-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 21-2013 LAST
Mon Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index The Chicago Fed's national activity index worsened in April 2013, falling to negative 0.53 from negative 0.23 in March 2013. The three-month moving average meanwhile was at negative 0.04 from negative 0.05 in March 2013.
-0.53
M/M
Chart View Growth Keep in mind that the three-month average of the index, which is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, is designed so that a zero reading equals trend growth and a reading below negative 0.70 indicates an increasing likelihood a recession has begun.
Negative View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index The ICSC edged up 0.2% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, reflecting the release of some pent-up demand. ICSC expects May industry sales will increase 2% to 3%.
3.1%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories Consumers played catch-up this past week and helped to propel weekly sales for retailers. Weather conditions continue to play havoc with the weekly pace of sales. On a year-on-year basis, the reading rose 3.1%.
Positive View
Tue Johnson Redbook Redbook National chain store sales rose 0.5% in the first two weeks of May from April. Redbook said sales and traffic slowed during the week ended May 18, following last-minute shopping on Sunday for Mother's Day. Sales for the week rose 2.4% year-over-year.
N/A
Chart View Sales and Inventories The index's rise compared with a targeted 0.6% gain. The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period were up 2.6% from last year, compared with a 2.7% targeted gain.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications The Refinance Index decreased 12% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% from one week earlier.
-9.8%
W/W
Chart View Real Estate Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March 2013 last week, leading to the largest single week drop in refinance applications this year
Negative View
Wed Existing Home Sales Index The NAR says sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million, up from 4.94 million in March 2013. Home sales have risen 9.7% in the past 12 months. Still, sales have changed little since November 2012. The supply of available homes remains tight and many would-be buyers aren't able to get loans.
4.97M
Chart View Real Estate Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes ticked up last month to the highest level in three and a half years, helped by a jump in the number of houses for sale.
Positive View
Wed EIA Crude Oil The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 394.60 million barrels last week, but are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.
-0.3M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity Crude oil inventories in the U.S. edged down during the week ended May 17, official data showed Wednesday. The week before, crude oil inventories edged down 0.60 million barrels to 394.90 million barrels.
Neutral View
Wed FOMC Minutes Chairman Ben Bernanke is telling Congress Wednesday that the U.S. job market remains weak and that it is too soon for the Federal Reserve to end its extraordinary stimulus programs.
N/A
Chart View Interest Rates In testimony to the Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke noted that the economy is growing moderately this year and unemployment has fallen to a four-year low of 7.5%. Still, unemployment remains well above levels consistent with healthy economies. And Bernanke said higher taxes and deep federal spending cuts are expected to slow economic growth this year.
Negative View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims Jobless Claims for the prior week, week 20, were revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The four-week moving average for new claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, slipped 500 to 339,500.
340K
Chart View Employment Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, pushing back below the 350,000 mark that economists normally associate with a firming job market.
Positive View
Thu FHFA House Price Index Home prices increased 1.3% in March 2013 from February 2013 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency's monthly home-price index released Thursday.
1.3%
M/M
Chart View Real Estate The index value in March 2013 was 199.1, with a reading of 100 equal to the price of homes in January 1991. Compared with the same month a year earlier, March 2013 home prices were up 7.2%.
Positive View
Thu New Home Sales New-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000 in April 2013, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was up 2.3% from March 2013 and just slightly below January's 458,000.
454K
Chart View Real Estate Sales of new homes rose in April 2013 to the second highest level since the summer of 2008 while the median price for a new home hit a record high, further signs that housing is recovering.
Positive View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report The U.S. Energy Information Administration said domestic gasinventories rose last week by 89 billion cubic feet to 2.053 trillion cubic feet. Traders and analysts had expected a 91-bcf build.
89
bcf
Chart View Commodity Most traders viewed the build as neutral to slightly supportive, noting it also came in below the five-year average increase for that week of 90 bcf.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded in the latest week on higher holdings of Treasuries and U.S. mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed.
$44.4B
Chart View Government The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $3.356 trillion on May 22, up from $3.312 trillion on May 15.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $12.7 Billions.
$12.7B
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates The average rates on fixed mortgage rose for the third straight week, hitting their highest levels since mid-March 2013. The average on the 15-year loan jumped to 2.77%. That's up from 2.69% last week. The record low of 2.56% was hit on May 2.
3.59%
Chart View Interest Rates Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate for the 30-year loan increased to 3.59% this week. That's up from 3.51% last week and above the rate of 3.31% reached in November 2012, the lowest on records dating to 1971.
Positive View
Fri Durable Goods Orders U.S. durable-goods orders rise 3.3% in April 2013. Orders for March 2013, meanwhile, were revised up to a 5.9% decline from a prior reading of a 6.9% drop. In the past four months, orders for durable goods have risen an unadjusted 0.7% compared to the same period in 2012. Core orders are up 1.8% on the same basis.
3.3%
M/M
Chart View Manufacturing Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods rose 3.3% in April 2013, led by higher demand for aircraft, military wares and autos. Stripping out the volatile transportation sector, orders rose a smaller 1.3%, the Commerce Department said Friday.
Positive View
     
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WEEK 21-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 21-2013
01. Interest Rates
1
Negative View
The 30-year loan increased to 3.59%.
02. Growth
1
Negative View
The Chicago Fed's national activity index worsened in April 2013.
03. Inflation
Non Available
 
04. Employment
N/A
 
05. Real Estate
1
1
Neutral View
Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March 2013.
06. Manufacturing
Non Available
U.S. durable-goods orders rise 3.3% in April 2013.
07. Consumer
Non Available
 
08. Sales & Inventories
2
Positive View
U.S. Retail Sales Up 0.5% in First Two Weeks of May Vs April.
09. Business Activity
Non Available
 
10. Government
1
Neutral View
 
11. Balance of Payments
Non Available
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 21-2013
8
3
2
Positive View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 21 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 21-2013
8
3
4
Positive View
Week 21, 2013 has been rated positive.
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 21-2013 ENDING MAY. 24
Reports Commentary

Rising demand and limited supply have encouraged builders to boost construction. Applications for building permits rose in April to the highest level in nearly five years. And U.S. builders started work on more new homes and apartments in April compared with the same month a year earlier.

Existing-home sales rose in April 2013 to hit the highest rate since November 2009, pointing to an ongoing recovery supported by low interest rates and pent-up demand, according to data released Wednesday.

The drop in last week Jobless Claims unwound most of the prior week's jump, suggesting employers were not laying off workers in response to tighter fiscal policy, especially the $85 billion in across-the-board government spending cuts that have dampened factory activity.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 112,000 to 2.91 million in the week ended May 11. That was the first time in five years so-called continuing claims were below the 3 million mark.

On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers that a decision to scale back the $85 billion in bonds the U.S. central bank Fed is buying each month could come at one of its "next few meetings" if the economy appeared set to maintain momentum.

New Home Sales: Both January and April had the fastest sales rates since July 2008.The median price of a home sold in April was $271,600, the highest level on government records going back to 1993. The April price was 8.3% higher than in March and 13.1% higher than a year ago.

Average rates on fixed mortgage rose for the third straight week, hitting their highest levels since mid-March. Still, mortgage rates remained close to historic lows, a trend that should help sustain the housing recovery.

Japan stocks crash on volatile bonds; Nikkei ends down 7.3%

Japanese shares suffered their worst losses in more than two years on Thursday after data showing an unexpected contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity added to worries the Federal Reserve could downscale its bond purchases.

After Bernanke's testimony in the morning, the S&P 500 rallied to 1688, up 18 points on the day. However, after comments that Bernanke foresaw the potential to reduce purchases between now and Labor Day, Treasuries plummeted with the 10-year yield gaining almost 11 basis points in under five minutes.

Participants in the Treasury market were significantly spooked, openly wondering what an actual tapering scenario might entail. Following the release of the minutes at 2 p.m., stocks fell further and finished down almost 1% on the day, one of the few occurrences of such an event this year. Technically, the S&P 500 also left an outside daily bar, which tends to signal reversals.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear in congressional testimony this week that the central bank could very well entertain a change in policy sooner than many had predicted. That would mean providing less stimulus to the economy by cutting back on its bond buying program.

The Fed's dual mandate means that both jobs and inflation data will be key. Labor data has been more encouraging of late, with the unemployment rate down to 7.5%. The Fed has said it wants to see the rate fall to 6.5% before it raises interest rates.

The data has been spotty enough that policymakers could want more consistency. Non-farm payroll growth has averaged about 208,000 monthly over the past six months but has dipped below that level in some months

Also far from target is inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which is the measurement most watched by the Fed, was only at 1% in March. The April reading is due on May 31.

China

The unexpected contraction in China's factory activity in May has heightened the risk of a further slowdown in the second quarter, after the world's second largest economy grew at its slowest pace in three years over January to March, said economists.

The flash HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for May that was released on Thursday slipped to 49.6, falling under the key 50 level, which divides expansion from contraction, for the first since October. Last month, the final HSBC PMI stood at 50.4.

The decline was driven partly by a fall in new orders - with the sub-index dropping to 49.5, the lowest reading since September.

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

  1. Mortgage rates increased to their highest level since March 2013.

  2. The U.S. job market remains weak and that it is too soon for the Federal Reserve to end its extraordinary stimulus programs.

  3. Home prices increased 1.3% in March 2013.

  4. New-home sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000.

  5. The 30-year loan increased to 3.59%.

  6. U.S. durable-goods orders rise 3.3% in April 2013.
       
    To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:    
    Raising the Debt Ceiling    
         
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