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Week 15 -2013 | From Apr. 08 to Apr. 12, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 15-2013 | Global View
| Week Rating
| DATE |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 15-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
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N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
ICSC Goldman Sachs Index |
U.S. store sales slipped a bit last week 14, 2013 after many shoppers were kept indoors due to the cold weather. Both reports also cited this year's earlier Easter as having negative impact. |
2.1%
Y/Y
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 |
Sales and Inventories |
The ICSC-Goldman store sales index increased to +2.1% year over year gains from +1.9% Y/Y the week prior. |
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Tue |
Johnson Redbook |
The Redbook store sales index decreased to +2.5% Y/Y gains from +3.5% Y/Y the week prior. Redbook notes that sales in the month of April 2013 will be held down by this year's earlier Easter which gave a boost to March 2013. |
2.5%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Store sales slowed in the big week following Easter, down 1 full percentage point for Redbook's same-store year-on-year reading to plus 2.5% for the April 6 week. |
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Tue |
Wholesale Trade |
Wholesale trade revenues in February 2013 were $422.5 billion, up 1.7% from January 2013 and up 3.7% from February 2012. In short, February 2013 Wholesale Trade Revenues Up 1.7% from January 2013. |
-0.3%
M/M
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Sales and Inventories |
February 2013 sales of durable goods were up 0.4% from the prior month and were up 2% from a year ago. Sales of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software were up 2.3% from last month, while sales of electrical and electronic goods were down 2.3%. |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose last week, driven by improved refinance demand as interest rates tumbled, an industry group said on Wednesday. |
4.5%
W/W
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Real Estate |
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 4.5% in the week ended April 5. The seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications gained 6.3%. But the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, slipped 1.3%. |
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Wed |
EIA Crude Oil |
U.S. crude oil inventories bumped up 0.3 million barrels for the week ending April 5, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report (link opens in PDF) released today. At 388.9 million barrels total, the newest number represents a 0.08% increase compared to the previous week. |
0.3M
Barrels
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Commodity |
For the same period, crude oil refinery inputs increased by 106,000 barrels per day (bpd), while imports fell by 211,000 bpd. These newest numbers carry forward the previous week's trend, when inputs rose 130,000 bpd and imports fell 227,000 bpd. Overall inventories remain "well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year," according to the EIA. |
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Wed |
FOMC Meeting Announcement |
Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting suggest that members have grown increasingly concerned that things could get messy if it continues its asset-purchasing and money-printing policies too far into the future. Federal Reserve officials remained divided over how long they should keep buying bonds, according to the minutes of the March 19-20 meeting released Wednesday. |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
Federal Reserve policy makers worried about increased risks due to the central bank's aggressive monetary stimulus, though most view those dangers as "manageable" for now. |
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Fri |
Treasury Budget |
The U.S. budget deficit improved markedly in March 2013, a sign that the deficit is on course to fall below $1 trillion for the first time in five years. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $106.5 million in March, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. |
$-106.5
Billions
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Government |
This is almost 50% below the deficit of $198.2 billion in March 2012. For the fiscal year to date, the deficit of $600 billion is 23% lower than in the first six months of the prior fiscal year. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, which eased fears of a marked deterioration in labor market conditions after a surprise stumble in job growth in March 2013. |
346K |
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Employment |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, unwinding a jump in the prior week that appeared related to difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal variations. That was the largest weekly drop since mid-November 2012. |
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Thu |
Import and Export Prices |
A second Labor Department report showed little signs of inflation, with import prices slipping 0.5% last month after rising 0.6% in February. In the 12 months to March 2013, import prices dropped 2.7%. Prices last month were subdued by a drop in the cost of petroleum, which offset a spike in imported food prices. |
-2.7%
Y/Y
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Inflation |
Export prices also fell last month, sliding 0.4% after increasing 0.7% in February 2013. They were weighed down last month by declines in prices for industrial supplies and materials. Prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials also fell, as did prices for consumer goods excluding automobiles. |
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Thu |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) today reported the U.S. natural gas stocks declined by 14 billion cubic feet last week, less than the decline of 21 billion cubic feet anticipated by analysts. |
-14
bcf
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Commodity |
Natural gas futures prices were up less than 1% in advance of the EIA's report, at around $4.09 per million BTUs, but rose to around $4.11 immediately following the EIA report. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet continued to expand and is now in its 12th consecutive week that the central bank's holdings have remained above the $3 trillion mark. |
$12.3
Billiions
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Government |
The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Wednesday increased to $3.229 trillion from $3.217 trillion a week earlier, the central bank said in a weekly report released Thursday. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change $67.b Billions from last week $20.8B revised. |
$67.8B |
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Money Supply |
M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates. |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage continued to drop, coming in at 3.43%, down from 3.54% last week and 3.88% a year earlier. |
3.43% |
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Interest Rates |
Similarly, the 15-year, FRM also slipped to 2.65% from 2.74%, significantly lower than the 3.11% level reached last year |
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Fri |
Producer Price Index |
Producer prices recorded their biggest drop in 10 months in March 2013 as the cost of gasoline tumbled, according to a government report on Friday that supported the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its very accommodative monetary policy. |
-0.6%
M/M
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Inflation |
The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted producer price index fell 0.6% last month, the largest drop since May 2012, after increasing 0.7% in February 2013. |
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Fri |
Retail Sales |
Retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.4% in March 2013 after a slightly revised 1.0% gain in February 2013. Retailers that sell books, music, hobby items, personal-care goods also posted lower sales. |
-0.4%
M/M
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Sales and Inventories |
Americans spent less at gasoline stations and most other stores in March 2013, as retail sales posted the biggest decline in nine months. |
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Fri |
Consumer Sentiment |
Consumer sentiment is down very steeply so far this month, at 72.3 vs a scorching mid-80s pace in the last two weeks of March 2013 and vs a soft low 70s pace in the first two weeks of March 2013. |
72.3 |
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Consumer |
We are seeing a lot of Volatility in the consumer sentiment report -- a big drop following a big surge following a big drop. |
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Wed |
Business Inventories |
Business inventories rose less than expected in February 2013, suggesting restocking of warehouses could give a smaller boost to economic growth in the first quarter than analysts had forecast. |
0.1%
M/M
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Sales and Inventories |
The Commerce Department said on Friday inventories increased 0.1% during the month, the weakest gain since June 2012. Businesses kept down their inventory growth in February which is good news given the weakness in many March 2013 indicators. |
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| WEEK 15-2013 ENDING APR. 12 |
Reports Commentary
The weak Employment Situation report on last week was a cherry on top of an ugly serving of poor economic reports. And so investors headed for the hills early in the session with a late surge leading to a not so painful -0.43% decline on the day.
FOMC Minutes
The minutes released Wednesday showed that some Federal Reserve policy makers are growing worried about the risks associated with the central banks' aggressive monetary stimulus, although most members still view the dangers as "manageable" now.
The Federal Reserve has tied monetary policy to the labor market. Minutes of its March 19-20 meeting released Wednesday showed that the U.S. central bank was moving closer to ending its monthly $85 billion purchases of mortgage and Treasury bonds to keep rates low and spur faster job growth.
Last month, Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed remained committed to its bond buying programs despite recent evidence of economic improvement. The central bank has said it will purchase $85 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. However, a growing number of Fed officials are concerned about the amount of stimulus being pumped into the economy, according to minutes of the Fed's March meeting, released Wednesday. Some fear that easy-money policies will lead to inflation.
The recent data suggest that the economy took a step backward in March after coming out of the gates reasonably strongly to start the year.
Budget
President Obama released his budget today. In short, he wants to increase spending (again) and increase taxes (again & again) in addition to rescinding the sequester spending cuts, which is even more additional spending.
The economy had experienced relatively strong job gains since October. The claims data are being monitored for signs of layoffs related to $85 billion in automatic budget cuts known as the sequester.
Economists say there is little evidence so far to suggest that the spending cuts that went into effect March 1 were hurting the labor market, noting the weakness in payroll growth last month had not been confined to sectors expected to be hard hit by the cuts.
Gas Prices
Sales fell the sharpest at gasoline stations, down 2.2% in the month, as the price at the pump declined. The average cost of regular gas fell from $3.72 a gallon to around $3.57 in March, according to government figures.
Lower gas prices are a good thing for consumers because it gives them more to spend on other items aside from basic necessities. Yet Americans also trimmed purchases at many other stores.
Sequester
Last month Congress and the White House allowed automatic $1.2 billion in across-the-board spending cuts, known as the sequester, to take effect.
The sequester grew out of a failed grand bargain on taxes and spending between Obama and House Speaker John Boehner in 2011.
In March, the government took in $186 billion, an increase of 8.6% compared with March 2012, led by an increase in payroll taxes.
The government spent $292.5 billion in the month, 21% less than in the year-ago period, thanks to lower outlays for defense, agriculture, and the government's aid to the banking industry.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- The S&P 500 climbed to its third highest close in history in eager anticipation of Q1 earnings.
- Soft Economic Reports: Last week provided a Royal Flush of 5 soft economic reports including services, manufacturing and, most importantly, jobs.
- The market is up 10% year to date. Yet earnings growth will only be in the mid-single digits. Yes, stocks can go up by more than earnings growth as long as PE's expand. But there is only so much elasticity in that equation.
- History Repeating Itself: In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the market raged higher up til April earnings season only to get thwarted. And here we are in April 2013 sitting on a fat 10% gain.
- Large Caps Leading the Way: That is not a positive sign. Rather it says investors are more interested in safety than risk taking. That is often a harbinger of a bearish turn on the way.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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U.S. Retail Sales Point to Soft Economy |
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