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Week 01 -2013 | From Dec. 31, 2012 to Jan. 04, 2013 |
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Economic Data for Week 01-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
| DATE/WEEK |
DAY |
REPORT/CATEGORY |
HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 01-2013 |
LAST |
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Mon |
Non Reports for Our Global Vision |
There will be no Economic Reports released on Monday. |
N/A |
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No Reports |
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Tue |
New Year |
There will be no U.S. Market Activity Today |
N/A |
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U.S. Market Holidays |
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Wed |
MBA purchase Applications |
Applications for home mortgages fell last week for the third consecutive week as refinancings fell to the lowest level since last April. Composite Index - W/W Change: -21.6%. |
-21.6%
W/W
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Real Estate |
The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 10.4% in the week ended December 28. |
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Wed |
ICSC Goldman Index |
The ICSC Goldman Index was relatively unimpressive last week as shoppers burned out prior to Christmas. |
2.7%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Post-Christmas bargain hunting helped drive same-store sales up 2.7% year-on-year rate following a 3.2% Y/Y reading last week. The week-to-week is up 0.6%. |
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Wed |
Johson Redbook |
The Redbook same-store sales index shows a 2.9% year-on-year rate for the December 29 week. Prior was a 2.4%. The Index keeps a flat reading for the las three weeks Year-to-Year. |
2.9%
Y/Y
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Sales and Inventories |
Redbook notes, as they have been doing quite a bit this year, that is the week’s sales were more promotional than retailers planned which points to weakness for profit margins. |
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Wed |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
The manufacturing sector closed 2012 on an upbeat note thoug Novemberappeared to be dampened by the approach of the fiscal cliff. |
50.7 Level |
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Manufacturing |
The ISM Manufacturing Report a widely-followed benchmark rose to 50.7, up from 49.5 in November. Most readings on manufacturing are positive, suggesting that the sector will continue to contribute to economic growth. |
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Wed |
Construction Spending |
Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell in November. Spending on U.S. construction projects unexpectedly dropped in November, restrained by declines in non-residential building and public works. |
-0.3%
M/M
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Growth |
Outlays fell 0.3% to $866 billion annual rate after increasing a less-than-previously estimated 0.7% in October. Construction is not quite as strong as earlier believed. |
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Thu |
ADP Employment Report |
U.S. added 215,000 private-sector jobs in December, more than expected. The private sector created 215,000 new jobs in December, a much stronger than expected number boosted by gains in construction hiring. |
215K
jobs |
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Employment |
The U.S. added 215,000 private-sector jobs in December, ADP estimated Thursday, led by a gain of 187,000 services jobs. The gain in November was revised to 148,000 from a prior estimate of 118,000. |
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Thu |
Jobless/Initial Claims |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised to show 12,000 more applications than previously reported. |
372K
claims
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Employment |
The government said the number of people filing claims for weekly unemployment aid rose to 372,000, a number it said could have been distorted by the winter holiday season. |
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Thu |
FOMC Meeting Begins |
Fed becoming worried about stimulus side effects. Several (officials) thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet |
N/A |
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Interest Rates |
The FOMC minutes from the Fed's December 12 policy meeting showed a growing reticence about further increases in the central bank's $2.9 trillion balance sheet, which it expanded sharply in response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009. |
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Thu |
Fed Balance Sheet |
The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded over the past week, as the central bank continued with its easy-money policy. The Fed's asset holdings in the week ended Jan. 2 increased to $2.919 trillion, up from $2.909 trillion a week earlier |
$9.9B
Assets
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Government |
For the January 2 week, total assets rebounded $9.9 billion, following a contraction of $12.9 billion the week before. The gain was due primarily to a $9.3 billion boost in holdings of Treasuries. Total assets for the January 2 week stood at $2.919 trillion. |
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Thu |
M2 Money Supply |
M2 Weekly Change. |
$38.5B |
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Money Supply |
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Fri |
Fixed Mortgage Rates |
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan slipped to 3.34% from 3.35% last week. That's near the 3.31% rate reached in November, the lowest on records dating to 1971. |
3.34% |
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Interest Rates |
The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage ticked down to 2.64% from 2.65% last week. The record low is 2.63%. |
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Fri |
Employment Situation |
The U.S. economy added 155,000 jobs in December, roughly in line with expectations, and potentially the goldilocks number the market was looking for. The unemployment rate for November was revised higher to 7.8% and nonfarm payrolls growth was revised to 161,000 from 146,000. |
7.8%
Rate |
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Employment |
Stocks remain flat after the December jobs report showed the economy added 155,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.8%. According to various consensus estimates, economists were expecting between 150,000 to 160,000 jobs added and a 7.7% unemployment rate. |
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Fri |
Factory Orders |
Factory new orders received by U.S. factories were flat in November. A price swing lower for fuel held back factory orders in November which are unchanged |
0.0%
M/M
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Manufacturing |
The Census Bureau reports that factory orders were little changed in November, with new orders rising $0.2 billion to $477.6 billion. Factory orders are now up 3.2% year over year |
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Fri |
ISM Non-Mfg Index |
The vast U.S. services sector in December grew at its fastest clip in 10 months, boosted by a rise in new orders. |
56.1
Level
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Business Actvity |
The ISM said its services index rose to 56.1 last month from 54.7 in November. The December reading was the highest since February and was well above economists' forecasts of 54.2, according to a Reuters poll. |
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Fri |
EIA Natural Gas Report |
In the week ending at December 28, natural gas storage dropped 135B according to EIA. It was expected to ease -129B, following a -72B fall in the prior week. |
-135
bcf |
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Commodity |
US: EIA Natural Gas Storage down -135B at Dec-28. Natural gas in storage fell 135 billion cubic feet in the December 28 week to 3,517 bcf. A withdrawal of 135 bcf was expected. |
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Fri |
EIA Crude Oil Report |
EIA reports 11 million-barrel drop in oil supplies. Oil futures pared some of their losses Friday after the U.S. EIA reported a bigger-than-expected drop in crude supplies for the week ended Dec. 28. |
-11.1M
Barrels
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Commodity |
Crude supplies fell by 11 million barrels. Analysts polled by Platts expected a 1 million-barrel decline. Motor gasoline supplies rose by 2.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks climbed 4.6 million barrels. Analysts had forecast a rise of 2.3 million barrels for gasoline inventories and a climb of 1.6 million barrels in distillate supplies. |
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| WEEK 01-2013 ENDING JAN. 04 |
Reports Commentary
'Fiscal cliff' deal approved by Congress. President Obama is praising the bill that staves off the fiscal cliff tax hikes and spending cuts. The House of Representatives followed the Senate's lead, and passed the bill late Tuesday, January 1.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing, the pillar of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession, has lost momentum in recent months as fears of the "fiscal cliff" and slowing global demand slammed the economy.
November's factory orders suggested that manufacturing was not heading for a hard landing, even though factories are struggling to regain momentum.
This is the trend we are looking for and It is not kind of a blip. The Fed has said it also will keep interest rates near zero until unemployment falls to 6.5%, which could take years.
Industries that were hiring last month included: health care, manufacturing, and food and beverage establishments. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 12.2 million people were unemployed in December. The BLS included two revisions in its report: 1,000 fewer jobs were added in October and the total number of jobs created in November was revised up to 161,000 from 146,000.
FOMC
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meeting revealed a somewhat surprising level of concern among the ranks of central bankers regarding the long-term impact of the bank's asset purchase program, or quantitative easing.
Federal Reserve minutes from the December meeting jolted investors on Thursday afternoon, revealing several members want to end quantitative easing sometime this year. During that policy meeting the FOMC adopted official rate targets of 2% for inflation and 6.5% unemployment.
Employment
Data on Thursday showed a solid gain of 215,000 new private sector jobs for December, while analysts polled by Reuters last week were looking for a rise of 150,000 new jobs in the Labor Department's official survey, due out on Friday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a gain of 155,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.8%. The rate was originally reported as 7.7% in November, but that was revised up to 7.8% in the latest report.
MBA Index
The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 10.4%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 10.5%. Both indexes dipped for a third straight week.
Commodities
Gold and silver futures fell more than 1% Friday on signs the Federal Reserve could bring quantitative easing, one of the biggest boosts to gold's breathtaking run, to an end this year.
What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?
- FOMC: several members want to end quantitative easing sometime this year.
- Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell in November.
- The U.S. economy added 155,000 jobs in December, in line with expectations.
- Manufacturing has lost momentum: "fiscal cliff" and slowing global demand.
- Sales were unimpressive last week as shoppers burned out prior to Christmas.
- The vast U.S. services sector in December grew at its fastest clip in 10 months.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded over the past week.
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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog: |
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Fiscal Cliff Ahead - Part I |
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