Sales

Retail sales in the U.S. rose in January for a third consecutive month, showing household spending is holding up even as an increase in the payroll tax takes a bigger bite from paychecks.

Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. Retail inventories, excluding autos - which go into the calculation of gross domestic product - were up 0.3% after rising by the same margin the prior month.

Import and Exports

The report on import and export prices showed a 0.6% gain on imports and exports up 0.3%. Economists were calling for a gain of 0.8% in the import prices and for a gain of 0.3% on the export prices. This morning's economic readings were too much in-line with estimates to make much of a difference in the markets today.

That was broadly in line with the assumption made by the government in its advance estimate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product published last month. A sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation contributed to GDP shrinking at a 0.1% annual pace in the final three months of 2012.

Treasury Budget

The trade deficit in December was not as big as the government had assumed in its initial GDP estimate and core retail sales in November and December were higher than previously estimated.

Taken together, that suggests output is likely to be revised higher when the government publishes its second growth estimate later this month.

The slower pace of stock accumulation in the fourth quarter bodes well for first-quarter GDP prospects. In December, business sales rose 0.3% after increasing 0.9% the prior month.

At December's sales pace, it would take 1.27 months for businesses to clear shelves, down from 1.28 months in November. The inventory to sales ratio was the lowest since May last year.

Mortgage Rates

The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages was unchanged for a second week, remaining near historic lows. 30-year mortgage rate steady at 3.53%.

Low mortgage rates have helped boost sales, and that has helped push home prices up, which makes consumers feel wealthier and helps boost consumer spending. Increased housing demand is also boosting home construction.

Still, housing has a long way to go to achieve a full recovery. And many people are unable to take advantage of low mortgage rates, either because they can't qualify under stricter lending rules or they lack the money to meet larger down payment requirements.

TIC

First, we must know that the budget year began on Oct. 1, 2012. The federal government reported a rare surplus for January and is on track to run its smallest annual budget deficit since President Barack Obama took office.

The Treasury Department said Tuesday that the government took in a surplus of $2.9 billion in January. That's the first monthly surplus since April, a month that benefited from income tax payments.

January's budget benefited from an estimated $9 billion in extra revenue from higher Social Security taxes. That helped lowered the deficit through the first four months of the budget year to $290.4 billion nearly $60 billion lower than the same period a year ago.

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

1. The average 30-year rate was unchanged at 3.53%
   
   
2. Imports and Export Prices were in-line with estimates.
   
   
3. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 27,000.
   
   
4. Purchase Applications declined -10.0% last week.
   
   
5. Industrial production in January 2012 slipped 0.1%.
   
   
6. Consumer sentiment rose a solid 2.5 points to 76.3 Level
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7. U.S. retail sales barely grew in January 2013, suggesting a tax increase at the beginning of the year constrained consumers.
   
   
8. The U.S. government ran a budget surplus of $3 billion in January 2013.
   
   
9. China and Japan, by far the largest holders of US Treasuries, both increased their holdings in the month.

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