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Week 49 - 2013
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Week 49 -2013 | From Dec. 02 to Dec. 06, 2013
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Market Holidays
 
Mkt
Time
Mon - Dec. 02
Tue - Dec. 03
Wed - Dec. 04
Thu - Dec. 05
Fri - Dec. 06
         
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Economic Data for Week 49-2013 | Global View | Week Rating
DATE/WEEK DAY REPORT/CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 49-2013 LAST
Mon ISM Manufacturing Index Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in November at the fastest pace in more than two years, indicating factories will be a source of strength for the economy heading into 2014.

57.3
Level

Chart View Manufacturing The Institute for Supply Management's index rose to 57.3, the highest since April 2011, from 56.4 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group's report showed today. Readings above 50 indicate growth. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 55.1.
Positive View
Mon Construction Spending Construction spending dipped in September 2013 but rose solidly in October 2013n on government projects, leading some economists to raise their estimates for third-quarter economic growth. In September 2013, construction spending slipped 0.3% from August 2013n totals to $901.2 billion.
0.8%
Chart View Growth The Census Bureau released estimates for both September 2013nand October 2013 because of delays related to the government shutdown.
Positive View
Tue ICSC Goldman Sachs Index

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 2.8% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. Sales for the week were up 2.5% year-to-year.

2.5%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 2.8% in the week ended Saturday from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis.
Negative View
Tue Johnson Redbook National chain-store sales dropped 1.2% in October 2013 from September 2013, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator, released Tuesday.
4.9%
Y/Y
Chart View Sales and Inventories The Johnson Redbook Sales Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period increased 3.4% from a year earlier. Sales for the week were up 4.9% year-to-year.
Positive View
Wed MBA purchase Applications Applications for U.S. home loans tumbled in the latest week, led by a sharp slide in refinancing applications, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
-12.8%
Chart View Real Estate The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, sank 12.8% in the week ended November 29, 2013.
Negative View
Wed ADP Employment Report

Private-sector hiring in November 2013 was the hottest in a year, as 215,000 jobs were added, according to a report from Automatic Data Processing released Wednesday morning. Moreover, ADP revised October's gain to 184,000.

215,000
Jobs
Chart View Employment The result blew past the consensus economist forecast, which had expected a November 2013 result of 178,000 new private jobs, up from an originally estimated gain of 130,000 in October 2013 , when the government shutdown hit the labor market.
Positive View
Wed U.S. Trade Balance U.S. trade gap narrows to $40.6 billion in October 2013 as oil sales boost exports to record level. Exports rebounded 1.8% after slipping 0.1% in September. Imports rose 0.4% in October, following a 1.6% increase the month before.
$-40.6B
Chart View Balance of Payments The trade deficit improved in October 2013 and for the right reason-exports were up. The October trade gap narrowed to $40.6 billion from $43.0 billion in September. October was close to analysts' expectations for a $40.2 billion deficit.
Positive View
Wed New Home Sales Purchases of new U.S. homes rebounded in October from the lowest level in more than a year, signaling buyers are starting to take higher mortgage rates in stride.
444K
Chart View Real Estate Sales jumped 25.4% to a 444,000 annualized pace, following a 354,000 rate in the prior month that was the weakest since April 2012, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington.
Positive View
Wed ISM Non-Mfg Index Services from banking to transportation grew more slowly in November 2013, pointing to a U.S. economy that is making progress in fits and starts heading into the new year.
53.9
Chart View Business Actvity The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index dropped to 53.9 from 55.4 in October 2013. A gauge above 50 shows expansion among companies that account for almost 90 percent of the economy. Other reports showed company hiring picked up more than projected last month and sales of new houses surged in October 2013.
Negative View
Wed EIA Crude Oil The US is producing more oil than it imports and this is seriously denting oil-producing countries' export earnings.
-5.6M
Barrels
Chart View Commodity Strong demand from refineries drained oil inventories in the November 29 week which fell 5.6 million barrels to 385.8 million.
Neutral View
Wed Beige Book Gains in manufacturing, technology and housing kept the economy expanding at a “modest to moderate” pace from early October 2013 through mid-November 2013.
N/A
Chart View Interest Rates The report gives policy makers clues on the state of the labor market and the economy as they debate whether to start reducing $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.
Positive View
Thu Jobless/Initial Claims

Fewer Americans are filing for unemployment benefits and have neared a six-year low, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

298K
Chart View Employment The report said jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 298,000 — nearing a six-year low. Claims have fallen in seven of the last eight weeks.
Positive View
Thu Gross Domestic Product (GDP) According to a release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a rate of 3.6%, up from the BEA’s initial estimate of a 2.8% growth rate and higher than economist predictions of 3.1%. This is also an increase over second quarter GDP growth, which increased at a rate of 2.5%.
3.6%
Chart View Growth Economic growth is up while jobless claims are down, according to new economic data released Thursday morning. But in a case of “what’s good news is bad news,” U.S. markets are down, suggesting a fear that economic growth means a tapering of the Federal Reserve’s pump of money into the economy.
Positive View
Thu Corporate Profits Corporate profits in the third quarter posted at $1.872 trillion, up from $1.821trillion the prior quarter. Profits in the third quarter increased an annualized 11.5%, following a gain of 8.5% in the second quarter.
5.8%
Chart View Growth Profits are after tax but without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits on a year-on-year basis increased 5.8% versus 5.3% in the second quarter.
Positive View
Thu Factory Orders

U.S. factories received fewer orders in October 2013, as aircraft demand fell and businesses cut back on computers. The decline suggests companies were hesitant to invest during the 16-day partial government shutdown.

-0.9%
Chart View Manufacturing Factory orders dropped 0.9% in October 2013, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That followed a 1.8 percent increase in September.
Negative View
Thu EIA Natural Gas Report Prior -13 bcf Actual -162 bcf.
-162
bcf
Chart View Commodity Natural gas in storage fell 162 billion cubic feet in the November 29 week to 3,164 bcf.
Neutral View
Thu Fed Balance Sheet For the December 4 week, the Fed balance sheet expanded $6.8 billion, following a gain of $19.3 billion the prior period. Holdings of Treasuries increased $6.1 billion while "other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies) grew $0.8 billion. 
$6.8B
Chart View Government Total assets for the December 4 week posted at $3.933 trillion. Reserve Bank credit for the December 4 week rose $2.2 billion after increasing $25.0 billion the prior week.
Neutral View
Thu M2 Money Supply M2 Weekly Change $15.4 Billions from $-4.0 Billions revised to $-3.6 Billions.
$15.4B
Chart View Money Supply M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
Neutral View
Fri Fixed Mortgage Rates Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on the 30-year loan jumped to 4.46% from 4.29% last week.
4.46%
Chart View Interest Rates The average on the 15-year fixed loan increased to 3.47% from 3.30%. The bond purchases are designed to keep long-term rates low.
Positive View
Fri Employment Situation The U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November. Economists had predicted payroll gains of 183,000 jobs.
7.0%
Chart View Employment The unemployment rate fell to 7.0% in November 2013 -- the lowest level since November 2008, as more people said they got jobs and joined the labor force.
Positive View
Fri Personal Income Personal Income Report was especially soft, at minus 0.1% for October 2013 following two very strong months at plus 0.5%.
-0.1%
Chart View Consumer The decline is the first since January 2013 and may be related to the impact of the government shutdown on private wages. Wages & salaries are especially soft, up only 0.1% following gains of 0.4% and 0.6% in the two prior months.
Negative View
Fri Consumer Spending/Real PCE Overall consumer spending picked up a bit as expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter but not by much, to plus 0.3% in October 2013 vs plus 0.2% in September 2013.
0.3%
Chart View Consumer Strength was in durable goods reflecting strong auto sales. Smaller gains were posted for nondurable goods and services.
Positive View
Fri Core PCE Inflation readings are very soft with the price index unchanged and the core index, Core PCE, up only 0.1% in October 2013.
0.1%
Chart View Inflation The year-on-year rate for the price index is only plus 0.7% with the core year-on-year rate at plus 1.1%, both declining in the month and both well below the Fed's goal of 2%.
Neutral View
Fri Consumer Sentiment

U.S. consumer sentiment surged in December 2013 as Americans' outlook on the economy and job prospects improved, a survey released on Friday showed.

N/A
Chart View Consumer The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment jumped to 82.5 for December 2013 , up from a final reading of 75.1 in November 2013. This was the highest reading for the index since July, and topped analyst forecasts for a reading of 76.
Positive View
Fri Consumer Credit Consumer borrowing rose in October 2013 by the most in five months as credit-card use picked up and Americans took out more loans for car purchases and education.
$18.2B
Chart View Consumer The $18.2 billion increase in credit followed a revised $16.3 billion gain in September 2013 that was more than initially reported, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $14.5 billion advance.
Positive View
     
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WEEK 49-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 49-2013
01. Interest Rates
2
Positive View
 
02. Growth
3
Positive View
 
03. Inflation
1
Neutral View
 
04. Employment
2
Positive View
 
05. Real Estate
1
1
Neutral View
 
06. Manufacturing
1
1
Neutral View
 
07. Consumer
3
1
Positive View
 
08. Sales & Inventories
1
1
Neutral View
 
09. Business Activity
1
Negative View
 
10. Government
1
Neutral View
 
11. Balance of Payments
1
Positive View
 
12. Money Supply
1
Neutral View
 
13. Banking System
Non Available
 
REPORTS WEEK 49-2013
14
5
3
Positive View
 
MARKET CORRELATION Positive View Negative View Neutral View RATING MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 49 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil
1
Neutral View
Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas
1
Neutral View
If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe
Non Available
Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China
Non Available
If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.
TOTAL WEEK 49-2013
14
5
5
Positive View
Week 49, 2013 has been rated positive.
   
         
LEGENDS: Rating Explained Rating Explained Chart View Chart View Positive View Positive View Negative View Negative View Neutral View Neutral View N/A Non Available
         
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WEEK 49-2013 ENDING DEC. 06
Reports Commentary

In September, construction spending slipped 0.3% from August totals to $901.2 billion. The sector rebounded in October, with spending rising 0.8% to $908.4 billion, the fastest pace in more than four years. Estimates for July and August were revised down sharply, but the changes were mostly in the volatile home improvements sector, which is not used to estimate economic growth.

Mortgages

The fall in mortgage applications comes as investors try to gauge when the U.S. Federal Reserve might exit its bond-buying program.

The Fed has said it would begin to scale back its $85 billion per month in purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities when policy makers are convinced of a steady, self-sustaining recovery. But data on the world's biggest economy have been mixed, leaving investors uncertain about the future path of U.S. monetary policy.

MBA data showed 30-year mortgage rates rose 3 basis points in the latest week to 4.51%. The refinancing index sank 17.5% while the purchase index, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 4.1%. The mortgage survey covers over 75% of U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, according to MBA.

GDP

On Thursday GDP jumped higher to +3.6% which is shockingly above the +3.1% expected.

The GDP report was not as robust as the headline reading would imply. That's because most of the increase came from growth in inventories. That usually leads to less production in the future as they sell off what was already made. Or simply, growth over the next couple quarters will be lower as it was already booked in Q3.

The price index for gross domestic purchases — a measurement of prices paid by U.S. residents — increased 1.8% in the third quarter, up from a 0.2% increase in the second quarter. Meanwhile, real gross domestic income (GDI), a measurement of economic output as costs incurred and incomes earned in GDP production, increased 1.4% in the third quarter, a drop from the 3.2% increase in the second quarter of this year. The BEA said that the difference between GDP and GDI can occur from a number of reasons (including source data) but that over longer time spans, estimates of the two measures tend to follow similar patterns.

Mortgage rates have stabilized since September, when the Fed surprised markets by taking no action. And rates remain low by historic standards. The Fed meets later this month and could slow the bond purchases if the economy shows further improvement. The bond purchases are designed to keep long-term rates low.

The increase in mortgage rates has contributed to a slowdown in home sales over the past two months. But the government reported Wednesday that purchases of new homes ramped up in October after three months of soft sales, evidence that the housing market is improving fitfully.

Jobs

2013 is on track to be the best year for job creation since 2005, but the job market still has a long way to go until it's entirely healed from the recession.
Only about 63% of Americans over the age of 16 participate in the job market -- meaning they either have a job or are looking for one. That's nearly the lowest level since 1978, driven partly by Baby Boomers retiring, but also by workers who had simply given up hope after long and fruitless job searches.

       
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