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Week 05 -2013 | From Jan. 28 to Feb. 01, 2013


Highlights	Rating	Summary	Week Ratings	Blog-Week

Weeks 2013


	Week 01		Week 27
	Week 02		Week 28
	Week 03		Week 29
	Week 04		Week 30
	Week 05		Week 31
	Week 06		Week 32
	Week 07		Week 33
	Week 08		Week 34
	Week 09		Week 35
	Week 10		Week 36
	Week 11		Week 37
	Week 12		Week 38
	Week 13		Week 39
	Week 14		Week 40
	Week 15		Week 41
	Week 16		Week 42
	Week 17		Week 43
	Week 18		Week 44
	Week 19		Week 45
	Week 20		Week 46
	Week 21		Week 47
	Week 22		Week 48
	Week 23		Week 49
	Week 24		Week 50
	Week 25		Week 51
	Week 26		Week 52

Market Holidays

Mkt	Time	Mon - Jan. 28	Tue - Jan. 29	Wed - Jan. 30	Thu - Jan. 31	Fri - Feb. 01
	7:00		FOMC Meeting #1 2013 Day 1	MBA Purchase Applications		Fixed Mortgage Rates
	7:30
	7:45		ICSC-Goldman Index
	8:00
	8:30	Durable Good Orders		ADP Employment Report	Jobless/Initial Claims	Employment Situation
				Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Personal Income
					Consumer Spending
					Core PCE
					Employment Cost Index (ECI)
	8:55		Johnson Redbook
	9:00		S&P Case-Shiller HPI
O	9:30
	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Consumer Confidence		Chicago PMI	Consumer Sentiment
						ISM Mfg Index
						Construction Spending
	10:30			EIA Crude Oil Report	EIA Natural Gas Report
	11:00
	11:30
	12:00
	12:30
	13:00
	13:30
	14:00
	14:30			FOMC Meeting #1 2013 Day 2
	15:00
	15:30
C	16:00
	16:30				Fed Balance Sheet
					Money Supply
	17:00
	17:30

Notice: Economic Data is from the U.S except noted. Data is not Real-Time. This Economic Calendar does not include Earning Releases, Announced Stock Splits, Upcoming IPOs with Underwritings or Rating Changes. Read our General Disclosure >>
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**Economic Data for Week 05-2013** | Global View | Week Rating
DATE	DAY	REPORT/CATEGORY	HIGHLIGHTS ON WEEK 05-2013	LAST
28/JAN/2013	Mon	Durable Goods Orders	U.S. durable-goods orders rise 4.6% in December. The Commerce Department said on Monday that non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for investment plans, edged higher 0.2%. The government also revised higher its estimate for November.	4.6% M/M
WEEK 05		Manufacturing	Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods jumped 4.6% in December, propelled by a large batch of orders for Boeing aircraft.
28/JAN/2013	Mon	Pending Home Sales Index	Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell 4.3% in December from the previous month missing analysts' expectations of a 1% gain, according to a monthly index from the National Association of Realtors, that is, the Pending Home Sales Index.	101.7 Level
WEEK 05		Real Estate	The Pending Home Sales Index is 6.9% higher than December of 2011. Realtors say it is not lack of demand but supply at the end of 2012 that pushed the numbers down. The index of sales agreements to a reading of 101.7.
29/JAN/2013	Tue	FOMC Meeting #1 2013 Day 2	Meeting Begins.	N/A
WEEK 05		Interest Rates
29/JAN/2013	Tue	ICSC Goldman Sachs Index	The ICSC-Goldman store sales index is up 2.0% from a year ago, compared to +3.2% Y/Y last week. Both reports cite once again that shoppers remain in a post-holiday slump, lacking any real interest in new purchases.	2.0% Y/Y
WEEK 05		Sales and Inventories	ICSC-Goldman's Same-store Sales Index fell 1.0% from last week for a Year-on-Year rate (Y/Y) of plus 2.0% which is sharply down from the index's plus 3.2 Y/Y last the prior week.
29/JAN/2013	Tue	Johnson Redbook	The Redbook Store Sales index is up 1.6% from a year ago, compared to a positive 1.8% Year to Year last week.	1.6% Y/Y
WEEK 05		Sales and Inventories	For the January 25 Week, Week 04, Redbook Store Sales Y/Y change was 1.6%. Redbook shows that sales so far this month have been slow due to the presidential election that held down traffic.
29/JAN/2013	Tue	S&P Case-Shiller Index	The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.6% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with economists' forecasts.	0.6% M/M
WEEK 05		Real Estate	Prices in the 20 cities rose 5.5% year over year. It was the strongest year-over-year price increase since August 2006.
29/JAN/2013	Tue	Consumer Confidence	The Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index dropped to 58.6 in January, missing analysts' estimates of 64.3, from an upwardly revised 66.7 in December. A prior December estimate pegged the level at 65.1.	58.6 Level
WEEK 05		Consumer	U.S. consumer confidence dropped in January to its lowest level in more than a year as Americans were more pessimistic about the economic outlook and their financial prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.
30/JAN/2013	Wed	MBA purchase Applications	The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Composite seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both Refinance and Purchase, decreased -8.1% in Week 04, ended Jan 25.	-8.1% W/W
WEEK 05		Real Estate	Purchase Applications fell 2% last week while Refinance Applications fell 10%. A key behind the decline in refinancing demand is an ongoing rise in mortgage rates that belies the Fed's QE monetary policy.
30/JAN/2013	Wed	ADP Employment Report	U.S. economy adds 192,000 private-sector jobs in January: ADP. Private-sector employment got off to a good start in 2013, according to a report from payroll-processing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc.	192,000 Jobs
WEEK 05		Employment	The U.S. added 192,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP estimated Wednesday. Economists polled had expected the ADP report to show a gain of 173,000 private-sector jobs.
30/JAN/2013	Wed	Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	The U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter for the first time since the recession, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports and sluggish growth in company stockpiles. The nation appeared to still be on a mild growth path if unusual factors are stripped out.	-0.1%
WEEK 05		Growth	Gross domestic product contracted by a 0.1% annual rate, down from 3.1% growth in the third quarter, based on the first of three readings by the Commerce Department
30/JAN/2013	Wed	EIA Crude Oil	The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad for Week 04, ending January 25 was 5.9 Million Barrels. U.S. crude-oil futures prices logged their best January performance in seven years.	5.9M Barrels
WEEK 05		Commodity	The 5.9 million barrel build in oil inventories was due to a rise in imports. Inventories are at 369.1. Keep in mind that the level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
30/JAN/2013	Wed	FOMC Meeting #1 2013 Day 2	The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it will maintain its asset buying of $85 billion a month and stick to its commitment to hold interest rates near zero until unemployment falls to at least 6.5% from the current 7.8%.	N/A
WEEK 05		Interest Rates	The central bank decision, which followed a two-day meeting, had been widely expected, especially after a surprising decline in U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter. U.S. stocks retreat after the Federal Reserve said growth in economic activity paused in recent months, and as fourth-quarter data showed a surprise contraction in gross domestic product.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Jobless/Initial Claims	Last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 38,000 to 368,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. First-time jobless claims jump by 38,000 to 368,000 Number of people filing new applications for unemployment benefits climbs to a one-month high.	368K
WEEK 05		Employment	The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week stayed in a range consistent with job growth and incomes rose in December by the most in eight years, mildly positive signs for a still-fragile economy.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Personal Income	The Commerce Department said American incomes rose 2.6% last month. That was the biggest increase since December 2004 and well above analysts' expectations for a 0.8% gain.	2.6%
WEEK 05		Consumer	Personal income soared in December 2012 due to one-time dividend payments. Much of the increases in personal incomes over the last two months have been due to special dividends and accelerated bonuses to beat tax increases that were due to begin this month.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Consumer Spending/Real PCE	The Commerce Department said consumer spending rose 0.2% in December while income surged 2.6%. The jump in income stemmed largely from a wave of onetime dividend payouts made by corporations in December 2012 to avoid a tax increase in January 2013.	0.2%
WEEK 05		Consumer	The big rise in incomes suggests total consumer spending power entered the new year on a stronger footing, even if the gains may not have been distributed evenly throughout the workforce.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Core PCE	The personal consumption expenditure index, which Federal Reserve officials say is a more accurate gauge of inflation than the better-known consumer price index, was flat on December 2012.	0.0%
WEEK 05		Inflation	The Core PCE price index was flat in December 2012 after slipping 0.2% the prior month. Market expectations were for no change. The core rate in December 2012 was unchanged in both December 2012 and November 2012. The market median forecast was for 0.1% rise.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Employment Cost Index	The employment cost index measuring the price of U.S. labor rose a mild 0.5% in the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted, the Labor Department said Thursday. The ECI index is up 0.5%, which is above the plus 0.4% rate in the third quarter, but details are favorable.	0.5%
WEEK 05		Inflation	The ECI is a closely followed index that reflects how much companies, governments and nonprofit institutions pay their employees in wages and benefits. Wages - some 70% of employment costs - rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the fourth quarter and benefits were up 0.6%.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Chicago PMI	The Chicago PMI rose to 55.6% in January 2013, to mark the best performance in nine months. Economists had expected the Chicago PMI to edge up to 49.8%.	55.6 Level
WEEK 05		Manufacturing	Chicago PMI climbs to 55.6% in January 2013. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. Details of the report were also strong. New orders posted the biggest increase in 10 months, advancing to 58.2% from 50.4% in December 2012.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	EIA Natural Gas Report	The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for Week 04, ending January 25 fell 194 billion cubic feet to 2,802 bcf.	-194 bcf
WEEK 05		Commodity	U.S. EIA Natural Gas Storage change -194B in Week 05 from last Week 04. Keep in mind that the level of natural gas inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	Fed Balance Sheet	Total Assets - Weekly Change $ -3.0 Billions. For the January 30 week, Week 05, Total Assets fell $3.0 billion, following a jumped of $47.9 billion the prior period.	$-3.0B
WEEK 05		Government	The latest week's decrease was led by a $17.4 billion drop in holdings of mortgage-backed securities. Treasuries rose $13.5 billion.
31/JAN/2013	Thu	M2 Money Supply	M2 Weekly Change $-55.0 Billions.	$-55.0B
WEEK 05		Money Supply	M2 included M1 and, in addition, short-term time deposits in banks and certain money market funds. In general, an increase in the supply of money typically lowers interest rates.
01/FEB/2013	Fri	Fixed Mortgage Rates	The average U.S. rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rose this week to its highest level in four months but remains low by historical standards. The rate on the 30-year loan increased to 3.53%. That's up from 3.42% last week and the first time the rate has exceeded 3.50% since September.	3.53%
WEEK 05		Interest Rates	The average for the 15-year fixed mortgage advanced to 2.81% from 2.71%. The job numbers are good enough to keep the current momentum we have in the housing market.
01/FEB/2013	Fri	Employment Situation	On the surface the BLS Employment Situation Report for January 2013 (PDF) is a continuation of the same mediocre job creation experienced since September 2012. 157,000 net new jobs were created, close to expectations, and the unemployment rate ticked up from 7.8 to 7.9%.	7.9%
WEEK 05		Employment	The economy appears to be keeping up with the growth in the labor force, but not gaining ground in restoring jobs lost during the recession.
01/FEB/2013	Fri	Consumer Sentiment	Consumer sentiment has really picked up the last two weeks, at 73.8 for the final January reading vs 71.3 at mid-month. The reading implies that sentiment is a bit over 75 right now which is off from the low 80s in October and November but is otherwise back in trend.	73.8 Level
WEEK 05		Consumer	This reading conflicts with the consumer confidence report posted on Tuesday where income expectations were being depressed by the paycheck tax hike.
01/FEB/2013	Mon	ISM Manufacturing Index	In contrast to the recent contraction seen in major regional manufacturing reports from the East Coast, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity in the U.S. rose to its highest level since May, from a downwardly revised 50.2 in December to 53.1 in January	53.1 Level
WEEK 05		Manufacturing	The headline number climbed to 50.7 from 49.5 in Novemer. This was higher than the 50.4 economists were looking for. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
01/FEB/2013	Fri	Construction Spending	Construction posted a nice gain in December 2012 as construction spending jumped 0.9%, following a revised rise of 0.1% in November 2012 which was originally down 0.3%. Analysts forecast a 0.8% boost.	0.9%
WEEK 05		Growth	The increase in December 2012 was led by a 2.2% gain in residential outlays after a 0.6% increase in November. Most of the latest improvement was from multifamily construction although single-family outlays also advanced. Public construction declined in the latest month.

? - Rating Explanation

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WEEK 05-2013
ECONOMIC REPORTS				RATING	REPORTS HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 05-2013
01. Interest Rates	1		2		Fed Keeps Stimulus Amid Signs of Weak Economy.
02. Growth	1	1			GDP Shows Surprise Drop for US in Fourth Quarter.
03. Inflation	1		1		U.S. employment costs climb 0.5% in 4th quarter.
04. Employment	2	1			Private Sector Adds More Jobs; Services Lead Way.
05. Real Estate	1	2			Pending Home Sales Fall Due to Dwindling Supply. Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006.
06. Manufacturing	3				Durable Goods Orders Rise on Spending Surge. ISM Mfg climbs to 50.7 Level.
07. Consumer	3	1			Consumer confidence drops in January.
08. Sales & Inventories		2			Home prices decline in November according to Case-Shiller.
09. Business Activity
10. Government			1
11. Balance of Payments
12. Money Supply			1
13. Banking System

REPORTS WEEK 05-2013	12	7	5
MARKET CORRELATION				RATING	MKT CORRELATION HIGHLIGHTS OF WEEK 05 -2013
COMMODITY - Oil			1		Rising commodity prices arouses fears of inflation.
COMMODITY - Natural Gas			1		If interest rates rise, bond funds will go down.
ECONOMIES - Europe					Raising interest rates to combat inflation might stop economic expansion.
ECONOMIES - China					If Economy starts to improve the dollar will strengthen and Gold will fall.

TOTAL WEEK 05-2013	12	7	7		Week 05, 2013 has been rated Positive.

52 Weeks Calendar

52 Weeks Reports Category Rating

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WEEK 05-2013 ENDING FEB. 01

Reports Commentary

Durable Good Orders

Monday 's data dupe headline was that durable goods orders had an unprecedented rise, with a massive 4.6% increase month over month. The orders rose to $230.7 billion from $220.7 billion, the biggest beat to expectations of a 2.0% headline print since December 2011.

A big component of this number was a massive rise in aircraft, and a good chunk of that comes from Boeing, which received orders for more than 180 planes rising by 10.1%, reversing after a 12.9% decline in the prior month. So if you strip out transport goods, U.S. orders rose 1.3% and suggested a continued, if mild expansion in the nation's industrial sector

Pending Home Sales

A measure of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes fell last month after reaching a 2 -year high in November. Pending home sales fell 4.3% in December, with low inventory cutting results, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors. Sales were held back by a limited supply of available homes.

Consumer

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 58.6 from an upwardly revised 66.7 in December, falling short of economists' expectations for 64. It was the lowest level since November 2011.

The index for December was originally reported as 65.1. The expectations index tumbled to its lowest level since October 2011 at 59.5 from 68.1. The present situation index slipped to 57.3 from 64.6.

Consumer spending rose 0.2% in December, in line with expectations

Home Prices

Single-family home prices rose in November, building on a string of gains that point to a housing market that is on the mend, data from a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday. Prices on a non-adjusted basis slipped 0.1%. The non-adjusted numbers showed prices fell in about half of the cities covered by the survey, with the winter months typically a weak period for housing, the survey said.

Employment

The private sector created 192,000 new jobs in January, better than expectations and reflective of the slowly improving trend in the labor market.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week stayed in a range consistent with job growth and incomes rose in December by the most in eight years, mildly positive signs for a still-fragile economy.

Claims are often jumpy in January after companies let go of holiday hires and some people wait until the new year to file for benefits. Government statisticians try to adjust the weekly data to account for seasonal variations but it's a tricky thing to get right.

GDP

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.1% in the fourth quarter. That's a sharp slowdown from the 3.1% growth rate in the July-September quarter.

Markets showed relatively little reaction to the GDP report, in part because it reinforced expectations that the Fed will continue to provide stimulus as long as the economy is weak.

Fed Balance Sheet

Given three rounds of asset purchases, the Fed's balance sheet moved above $3 trillion for the first time earlier this month. If the current asset-purchase program lasts all year, the balance sheet could expand to $4 trillion.

There is concern that the size of the balance sheet will make it more difficult for the Fed to tighten policy when the time comes.But the majority of Fed officials believes that these risks are outweighed by the social cost on the economy of too many unemployed workers.The Fed has kept its federal funds target for short-term rates unchanged at a record-low range of 0 to 0.25% for four years.

China

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, missing market expectations and underscoring that the economy is making only a mild recovery from its weakest year since 1999.

What do the Economic Reports reveal about the state of the economy?

Fed Keeps Stimulus Amid Signs of Weak Economy.
U.S. employment costs climb 0.5% in 4th quarter.
Private Sector Adds More Jobs; Services Lead Way.
Pending Home Sales Fall Due to Dwindling Supply. Home prices see best yearly gain since 2006.
Durable Goods Orders Rise on Spending Surge. ISM Mfg climbs to 50.7 Level.
Consumer confidence drops in January.
Home prices decline in November according to Case-Shiller.

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To prepare for this week we have posted the following Blog:

U.S. Balance Sheet Topped $3 Trillion

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