10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Monday as investors awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and consumer inflation figures due to be released this week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was down by just over two basis points to 3.534%. The 2-year Treasury yield was almost flat and was last trading at 4.327% after dipping by less than a basis point. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
Empire State Mfg index
Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell sixteen points to -11.2. New orders moved slightly lower, while shipments edged higher. Delivery times and inventories were little changed. Labor market indicators pointed to a moderate increase in employment, but a slightly shorter average workweek. Input prices and selling prices increased at about the same pace as last month.
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MBA Purchase Applications
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FOMC Meeting 8 Fed raises interest rates half a point to highest level in 15 years. The Federal Reserve continued its battle against inflation by raising its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 15 years. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to boost the overnight borrowing rate half a percentage point, taking it to a targeted range between 4.25% and 4.5%. Along with the increase came an indication that officials expect to keep rates higher through next year, with no reductions until 2024.
Jobless Claims
Weekly jobless claims fell to 211,000, a decline of 20,000 from the previous period and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 232,000. In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell to 211,000, a decline of 20,000 from the previous period and well below the Dow Jones estimate for 232,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, nudged higher to 1.671 million.
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CPI
Consumer prices rose less than expected in November, up 7.1% from a year ago. The consumer price index rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%. Core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%. Stocks roared higher following the report as investors look for signs that runaway inflation is ebbing. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.5% for the month, though they were still down 1.9% from a year ago.
Retail Sales Retail sales fell 0.6% in November as consumers feel the pressure from inflation. Retail sales for November declined 0.6%, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% drop. Consumers pulled back on spending in November, failing to keep up with even a muted level of inflation for the month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Retail sales for the month declined 0.6%, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% drop. The number is not adjusted for inflation as gauged by the Labor Department’s consumer price index, which increased 0.1% in November, which also was below expectations. Measures that exclude autos and both autos and gas sales both showed 0.2% declines.
Philly Fed surveys from the New York and Philadelphia regions showed contraction in manufacturing activity in December. Also, separate surveys from regional Federal Reserve districts showed contraction in manufacturing activity in December. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures activity in the New York region, posted a reading of -11.2, against the estimate of -0.5. That represents the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against contraction. This month’s reading represented a drop of some 16 points into contraction territory, owed in good part to a slide in the general business conditions index. Inventories in the region also fell, though price indexes were little changed.
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Similarly, the Philadelphia Fed survey rose 6 points but was still negative at -13.8, against the -12 estimate. Sharp negative readings for new orders, unfilled orders and delivery times weighed on the index. However, prices eased considerably for the region, with both the prices paid and received measures falling.
Fixed Mortgage Rates
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