Week 38-2022 | Rating

Week 38-2022 | Chart

Week 38-2022 | News

10-Year Treasury Yield

Treasury yields climbed on Monday as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve’s next moves in the face of persistently high inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield gained 6 basis points to 3.518%, hitting its highest level since April 2011, and was last up 2 basis points to 3.465%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond rose 8 basis points to trade at 3.942%, trading around levels not seen since 2007.

Fed Meeting

The Fed’s two-day meeting will begin Tuesday, with most market participants expecting another 75-basis-point hike by the central bank. Some analysts have, however, argued the Fed could increase interest rates by a full point, or 100 basis points. It comes after inflation rose more than expected in August. The consumer price index increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year — higher than economists expected. The data has led investors to expect the Fed to double down on higher interest rates for longer, until prices fall.

HMI

Homebuilding sector historically outperforms following early declines. More homebuilders lower prices as sentiment falls for ninth straight month. Homebuilder sentiment in September fell 3 points to 46 in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is considered negative. Nearly a quarter of builders reported lowering prices as rates surged. Higher costs for land, labor and materials have made it harder for builders to lower prices, but they are now being forced to.

Exisiting Hpme Sales

Existing home sales fall in August 2022, and prices soften significantly. Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.4% in August 2022 from July 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.80 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is the slowest sales pace since June 2020, when activity stalled very briefly due to the start of the pandemic. Outside of that, it is the slowest pace since November 2015. Sales of previously owned homes fell 0.4% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.80 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is the slowest sales pace since May 2020, when activity stalled very briefly due to the start of the Covid pandemic. Outside of that, it is the slowest pace since November 2015. Sales were 19.9% lower than in August 2021. Homebuilders have been pulling back in the face of falling demand, but there was a small bump in single-family housing starts in August, according to the U.S. Census. That may have been due to a brief drop in mortgage rates during, which sparked more interest from buyers. But building permits, which are an indicator of future construction, fell as mortgage rates were expected to rise again. The 30-year fixed started this year at 3%. It is now close to 6.5%. Even with interest rates making housing less affordable, prices were still higher than a year ago. The median price of an existing home sold in August was $389,500, up 7.7% from a year ago. Home prices historically decline from July to August, due to seasonality, but the drop this year was wider than usual, suggesting a significant softening.

FOMC

Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised benchmark interest rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point and indicated it will keep hiking well above the current level. In its quest to bring down inflation running near its highest levels since the early 1980s, the central bank took its federal funds rate up to a range of 3%-3.25%, the highest it has been since early 2008 following the third consecutive 0.75 percentage point move. The increases that started in March and from a point of near-zero mark the most aggressive Fed tightening since it started using the overnight funds rate as its principal policy tool in 1990. The only comparison was in 1994, when the Fed hiked a total of 2.25 percentage points; it would begin cutting rates by July of the following year. Along with the massive rate increases, Fed officials signaled the intention of continuing to hike until the funds level hits a “terminal rate,” or end point of 4.6% in 2023. Traders had fully priced in the 0.75 percentage point move and even had assigned an 18% chance of a full percentage point move, according to CME Group data. Futures contracts just prior to Wednesday’s meeting implied a 4.545% funds rate by April 2023.

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