10-Year Treasury Yield
The 2-year Treasury yield ticked higher Thursday as investors considered the path ahead for interest rates following the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials and ahead of key economic data. The 2-year Treasury yield was last up by 4 basis points at 4.61%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was unchanged at 4.20%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
CFNAI Price
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New Home Sales
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Durable Orders
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Shiller Services
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Consumer Confidence
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FHFA Services
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MBA Purchase Applications
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Durable Goods Orders
US Economic data out Tuesday was mixed, showing stronger-than-expected orders for durable goods, but waning consumer confidence. February’s durable goods orders rose higher than consensus Orders for long-lasting goods in the U.S. rose 1.4% in February, higher than the 0.8% economists had predicted, according to StreetAccount. Last month’s core orders, which exclude aircraft, rose at 0.7%, also higher than the 0.5% that had been anticipated.
GDP -
U.S. GDP Final Q4-2023 was 3.4%. Consensus was 3.2%.. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 3.2% Investors have had to adjust their view of when the Fed will start easing as inflation has remained elevated. The view as expressed through futures trading is that rate reductions will begin in September, with the Fed likely to cut just one or two times this year.
Corporate Profits
Corporate profits hit record high as economy boomed in fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted profits after taxes hit a record high of $2.8 trillion, beating the record of $2.7 trillion in the third quarter of 2022. Profits increased 3.9 percent on the quarter, above expectations of around 3.3 percent. Corporate profits smashed expectations in the fourth quarter of 2023 as the knock-on effects of pandemic stimulus juiced the U.S. economy.
Chicago PMI
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Consumer Sentiment UM
Consumer sentiment climbs to 2½-year high as U.S. inflationary pressures ease. The numbers: The final reading of consumer sentiment in March rose to a 32-month high, as Americans expressed more confidence that inflation would ease and reduce the financial strain on households. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey climbed to 79.4 from an initial 76.5, the University of Michigan said Thursday.
Real GDP
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Jobless Claims
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Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates fall, providing some relief to home buyers. Mortgage rates tick down, offering home buyers some relief in terms of affordability. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell and averaged 6.79% as of March 28, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC on Thursday. It’s down 8 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point.
International Trade Goods
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Retail Inv Adv
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Wholesale Inv Adv
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Personal Income
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Core PCE
Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually in February, as expected. Inflation rose in line with expectations in February, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold before it can start considering interest rate cuts, according to a measure the central bank considers its more important barometer.The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% on a 12-month basis and was up 0.3% from a month ago, matching estimates. Core PCE was up 0.3% for the month and 2.5% at the 12-month rate, compared to estimates for 0.4% and 2.5%. Consumer spending shot up 0.8% on the month, well ahead of the 0.5% estimate. Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly softer than the 0.4% estimate.The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% on a 12-month basis and was up 0.3% from a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones estimates. Including volatile food and energy costs, the headline PCE reading showed a 0.3% increase for the month and 2.5% at the 12-month rate, compared to estimates for 0.4% and 2.5%. Both the stock and bond markets were closed in observance of the Good Friday holiday. While the Fed looks at both measures when making policy, it considers core to be a better gauge of long-term inflation pressures. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation; core PCE inflation hasn’t been below that level in three years.
Consumer Spending
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