10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields declined Monday as investors looked ahead to a week of key economic data and the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate decision of the year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by 5 basis points to 4.1065%. The 2-year Treasury yield pulled back 3.1 basis points to 4.33%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%..
Shiller home Price
Home prices in November fell 0.2% from October, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. While that may not seem like a lot, it is the first monthly drop since January 2023. Mortgage rates rose sharply in October to their highest level in more than 20 years, making houses hard to afford. Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly price declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, six cities registered a new all-time high in November. Those were Miami; Tampa, Florida; Atlanta; Charlotte, North Carolina; New York; and Cleveland. Prices nationally were still higher than the year before, and those annual gains increased again relative to the prior month. They rose 5.1% from November 2022, up from a 4.7% annual increase in October. The 10-city composite climbed 6.2%, up from a 5.7% advance in October. The 20-city composite rose 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month.
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence climbs to 2-year high as inflation slows and economy keeps growing. U.S. consumer confidence index rises to 114.8 in January from 108.0. The numbers: Consumer confidence jumped in January to a two-year high of 114.8, a survey showed, reflecting slower inflation, a record stock market and improved growth in the economy. The closely followed index advanced from a revised 108.0 in December, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
FHFA Index
U.S. home prices rose in November at the swiftest annual rate in 11 months, indicating a recovery in the housing market may be taking hold. Home prices grew 6.6% on a yearly basis after rising by 6.3% the month before, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said on Tuesday. That was the strongest annual growth since December 2022, when prices rose 6.8%. Annual home price gains have been picking up speed, although home sales rates have remained subdued due to lack of inventory and high mortgage rates. Prices increased 0.3% on a month-to-month basis in November, unchanged from October's growth rate.
JOLTS Index
The number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 9.02 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed 8.92 million (revised from 8.79 million) openings in November and came in above the market expectation of 8.75 million. "Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively, the BLS noted in its press release and added:
MBA Purchase Applications
Alphabet shares slide o
Alphabet
Alphabet shares slide on disappointing Google ad revenue. Alphabet reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for the fourth quarter, but ad revenue trailed analysts’ projections. Alphabet shares slid more than 6% in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported ad revenue that missed analysts’ estimates. Here are the key numbers: Earnings per share: $1.64 vs. $1.59 expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Revenue: $86.31 billion vs. $85.33 billion expected by LSEG. Alphabet reported its fastest quarter for revenue growth since early 2022, with sales climbing 13% from $76.05 billion a year earlier, the company said in a statement. However, ad revenue of $65.52 billion trailed analysts’ estimates of $65.94 billion, according to StreetAccount.
Jobless Claims
However, a separate Labor Department report showed that first-time filings for unemployment benefits totaled 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week and ahead of the 214,000 estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled just shy of 1.9 million, up 70,000 and higher than the 1.84 million estimate from FactSet.
JOLTS
US job openings unexpectedly rose in December to the highest level in three months while fewer Americans quit their jobs, indicating workers are growing more cautious even as labor demand remains strong.The number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 9.02 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed 8.92 million (revised from 8.79 million) openings in November and came in above the market expectation of 8.75 million. "Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively, the BLS noted in its press release and added:
ADP Employment Report
Private payroll growth declined sharply in January, a possible sign that the U.S. labor market is heading for a slowdown this year, ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 107,000 workers in the first month of 2024, off from the downwardly revised 158,000 in December and below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000, according to the payrolls processing firm. Only one sector — information services (-9,000) — reported a decline, but hiring was slow across virtually all sectors.
Productivity abnd Cost
Economic reports Thursday brought good news for productivity and inflation, though initial jobless claims ticked higher than anticipated. Productivity, a measure of worker output, increased 3.2% in the fourth quarter, better than the 2.5% estimate from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. At the same time, unit labor costs, or the difference between hourly pay and productivity, rose just 0.5%, below the 1.1% estimate.
ISM Manufactuting
The U.S. manufacturing sector remained in contraction during January, while prices posted an unexpected jump. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 49.1, an increase of 2 points from December and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 47.2. However, because the gauge is a diffusion index measuring the share of business reporting expansion, any reading below 50 represents contraction. The sector has been in contraction for 15 straight months.
Construction Spending
In a separate data point, the Commerce Department reported that construction spending rose 0.9% in December, well ahead of the consensus forecast for a 0.5% gain.
FOMC Annoucement Meeting #1
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as consumer confidence improves and inflation slows. The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it was keeping interest rates at their current levels amid improving consumer confidence and a declining inflation rate.The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since last summer, following 11 increases that began in March 2022. The rate sets a benchmark for other interest rates throughout the economy — everything from credit cards to mortgages, and business and auto loans.Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as consumer confidence improves and inflation slows. The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it was keeping interest rates at their current levels amid improving consumer confidence and a declining inflation rate.The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since last summer, following 11 increases that began in March 2022. The rate sets a benchmark for other interest rates throughout the economy — everything from credit cards to mortgages, and business and auto loans.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. However, the central bank indicated it is not ready to start lowering interest rates just yet. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the statement said.Dow falls 200 points after Powell signals Fed may not cut at March meeting:. Stocks fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank likely wouldn’t be ready to cut rates in March.Bond yields trimmed their losses after the Fed released its updated statement, but the 10-year Treasury yield stayed below the 4% market.
Powell Meeting
Stocks recover from a dismal day for the major averages after the Federal Reserve held steady on rates but signaled that a March cut is unlikely. Those losses come after Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting conference discouraged investor hopes for a rate cut as soon as March, sending equities tumbling.
Unemploymnet Rate
The United States produced an unexpectedly sizable batch of jobs last month, a boon for American workers that shows the labor market retains remarkable strength after three years of expansion. Employers added 353,000 jobs in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent.
ISM Service
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Factory Orders
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Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates began easing from two-decade highs in the fourth quarter last year after the Federal Reserve left its policy benchmark unchanged for three straight meetings. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose moderately to 6.69% for the week ended Jan. 25, according to Freddie Mac, and has remained below 7% since early December.
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