10-Year Treasury Yield
Treasury yields fell Thursday as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested a September rate cut was on the table, along with a jump in U.S. jobless claims. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield traded at 3.983%, reaching its lowest level since Feb. 2. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.18%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
PMI Manufacturing Final
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Construction Spending
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Unit Labor Cost Index
Unit labor costs, a measure of wages and productivity, rose just 0.9% in the second quarter, below the 1.7% forecast, the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the past four quarters, unit labor costs were up just 0.5%, the smallest increase since the third quarter of 2019.
MBA Purchase Applications
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FOMC
the Fed chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did give some investors hope by signaling a September rate cut is on the table. The economic data keep rolling on in the direction of a downturn, if not recession, this morning,The stock market doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry because while three Fed rate cuts may be coming this year and 10-year bond yields are falling below 4.00%, the winds of recession are coming in hard.
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims surge but labor costs fall. Initial unemployment claims jumped last week while a measure of labor costs was unexpectedly low, according to economic data released Thursday. First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 249,000 for the week ending July 27, an increase of 14,000, the Labor Department reported. That was the highest level since August 2023 and above the 235,000 Dow Jones estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased to 1.877 million, the highest level since Nov. 27, 2021.
Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales post surprise jump in June due to rising number of home listings. Even more inventory is expected to come onto the housing market in the upcoming months.The numbers: Pending home sales rose in June as an increase in for-sale listings prompted some home buyers to act. Pending home sales rose 4.8% in June from the previous month, according to the monthly index released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
ADP Report
Private payroll growth slowed to 122,000 in July, less than expected, ADP says. Private payrolls increased by just 122,000 in July, the slowest pace since January and below the upwardly revised 155,000 in June and the estimate for 150,000, ADP reported. Wages for those who stayed in their jobs increased 4.8% from a year ago, the smallest increase since July 2021 Companies added just 122,000 jobs on the month, the slowest pace since January and below the upwardly revised 155,000 in June. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 150,000.
Unemploymnet Rate
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ISM Manufacturing
Slump goes on: Manufacturing contracts for fourth month in a row, ISM finds. ISM manufacturing index drops to 8-month low. The numbers: A key barometer of U.S. factories fell in July for the fourth consecutive month and hit an eight-month low — a sign that an ongoing slump in the industrial side of the economy has deepened. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slid to 46.8% last month from 48.5% in June. Numbers below 50% signal the manufacturing sector is shrinking.
Geo Risk
Major indexes closed sharply lower Thursday as chip stocks retreated and data releases heightened concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, while investors awaited earnings reports from big tech companies after the closing bell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.4% and 2.3%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.2%. Numbers released this morning showed that manufacturing activity fell again in July, according to ISM's purchasing manager's index, with a steeper decline than economists expected. Manufacturing has been depressed for the past seven quarters, and economists don't see that changing until the Fed cuts rates.
Mortgage Rates
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