10-Year Treasury Yield
Treasury yields slipped on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to a fresh batch of economic data and considered the outlook for the U.S. economy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was flat at 4.238%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury note was also flat to trade at 4.424%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
PMI Manufacturing Final
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Construction Spending
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ISM Manufacturing Index
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MBA Purchase Applications
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FOMC Minutes for 13/Dec/2023
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Jobless Claims
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 20, down 10,000 from the previous week and exactly in line with the Dow Jones forecast. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged lower to 1.85 million.
Durable Goods Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, up five of the last six months, increased $26.1 billion or 9.9 percent to $289.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 10.4 percent. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $26.4 billion or 34.8 percent to $102.2 billion.. Orders for durable goods — generally big-ticket items such as aircraft, appliances and computers — unexpectedly fell 6.6% in June, compared with the forecast for a 0.3% increase. However, excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%.
GDP
U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected. Real gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, above the 2.1% forecast. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Fed, rose 2.6% for the quarter, down from the 3.4% move in Q1. Core PCE prices were up 2.9%, down from 3.7%. However, the report also indicated that the personal savings rate continues to decelerate, at 3.5% for the quarter, compared with 3.8% in Q1. Real gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% rise in the first quarter.
Consumer Spending
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Personal Income
Personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate. Spending increased 0.3%, meeting the forecast, while the personal savings rate decreased to 3.4%. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% on the month and was up 2.5% from a year ago, in line with Dow Jones estimates, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The year-over-year gain in May was 2.6%, while the monthly measure was unchanged. Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank’s 2% long-range target
Core PCE
Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June from a year ago, easing path to rate cut. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in June and was up 2.5% from a year ago, with the annual rate showing a slight decline from the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations.
Consumer Sentiment UM
University of Michigan survey shows lower inflation outlook. Consumers’ optimism dimmed slightly in July, but the outlook for inflation dipped to a tie for its lowest in more than three and a half years, according to the final University of Michigan Survey of Consumers released Friday. The overall sentiment index edged lower to 66.4, better than the Dow Jones estimate for 66, but below the June reading of 68.2. On inflation, the revised one-year outlook showed the expectation for 2.9%, tying several months for the lowest since December 2020. The five-year outlook was at 3%, where it has held for the past four months.
Mortgage Rates
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