Week 28-2024 | Rating

Week 28-2024 | Rating

Week 28-2024 | Rating

10-Year Treasury Yield

U.S. Treasury bond yields were slightly down on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that keeping interest rates elevated for too long could stunt economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield was one basis point lower at 4.2880%. The 2-year Treasury note yield was little changed at 4.6284%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

PMI Manufacturing Final

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Construction Spending

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ISM Manufacturing Index

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MBA Purchase Applications

Mortgage refinance demand drops further, despite homeowners sitting on $17 trillion in equity. Applications to refinance a home dropped last week for the fourth straight week, down 2%. Homeowners were sitting on a collective $17 trillion in equity as of the end of the first quarter of 2024. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased last week to 7.00% from 7.03%. Applications to refinance a home dropped last week for the fourth straight week, down 2%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July Fourth holiday. Demand is still 28% higher than it was the same week one year ago, when rates were 7 basis points higher.Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 1% for the week but were 13% lower than the same week one year ago.

FOMC Minutes for 13/Dec/2023

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Jobless Claims

Jobless claims drop sharply to lowest level since late May. The numbers: Initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to 222,000 in the week ending July 6, the Labor Department said Thursday. It is the lowest level since late May. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated new claims would fall by 2,000 to 236,000. The weekly decline in claims is the highest since last September.

CPI

Inflation falls 0.1% in June from prior month, helping case for lower rates. The CPI, a broad measure of costs for goods and services, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core CPI increased 0.1% monthly and 3.3% from a year ago. The annual increase for the core rate was the smallest since April 2021. A 3.8% slide in gasoline prices held back inflation for the month, offsetting 0.2% increases in both food prices and shelter. The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis.

ADP Employment Report

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PMI Composite Final

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Nonfarm Payroll

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Unemploymnet Rate

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ISM Service

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PPI Inflation

Wholesale costs rose slightly faster than expected in June, but not enough to counter a recent string of reports showing inflation has slowed again. The producer price index advanced 0.2% last month, the government said Friday. That was a touch faster than Wall Street's 0.1% forecast. Yet the more closely followed core rate of wholesale inflation was unchanged in June -- below forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Core prices tend to give a more accurate look at the trend in inflation. Just a day earlier, the better known consumer price index posted the first decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. The low readings on inflation lately raise the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by September. The Fed is aiming to reduce the annual rate of inflation to 2% using its preferred PCE index. The increase in wholesale prices in the past 12 months, meanwhile, edged up to 2.6% in June from 2.4% in the prior month. The 12-month increase in the core wholesale prices, which omit the volatile food, energy and trade margin categories, decelerated to 3.1% from 3.3%.

Mortgage Rates

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased last week to 7.00% from 7.03%, with points falling to 0.60 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

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