10-Year Treasury Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield moved lower on Thursday as oil prices rallied and investors digested a number of key data releases, which will shed further light on the evolving inflationary backdrop and the outlook for interest rates. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down more than 2 basis points at 4.265%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is typically more sensitive to short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, fell more than 3 basis points to 3.758%.
ISM Services Index
Brief News
US Dollar Index
Brief News
Durable Goods Orders
Brief News
Consumer Credit
Brief News
Crypto World Bitcoin
Brief News
MBA Mortgage Applications
Brief News
EIA Crude Oil Report
West Texas Intermediate futures increased 6%, trading back above $100 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude futures were up 3% to trade above $98 per barrel.
FOMC Minutes
Fed minutes from March’s meeting showed policymakers remain open to future rate hikes should inflation continue to exceed 2%, while stressing the need to be nimble.To be sure, inflation before the Iran war broke out was still above the Fed’s target of 2%.If energy-driven price pressures prove temporary and core inflation continues to cool, the Fed can hold rates steady or potentially ease. If the shock starts to bleed into broader inflation or expectations, the bar for cuts rises. Federal Reserve officials at their March meeting still expected to lower interest rates this year, even with a high level of uncertainty from the Iran war and tariffs, according to minutes released Wednesday.
Hedging Gold
Gold advanced for a third day as traders weighed the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, even as ongoing tensions threatened to derail a fragile ceasefire. Bullion traded around $4,770 an ounce, extending a 1.5% gain over the previous two sessions. The US and Iran prepared for peace talks in Pakistan with a vulnerable truce largely holding, though issues such as Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
Jobless Initial Claims
In the labor market, jobless claims for the week ended April 4 was higher than expected, however, coming in at 219,000 compared to the 210,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting.
GDP
US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate. U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter amid downgrades to business investment, including inventory accumulation, but corporate profits increased sharply, government data showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product increased at a downwardly revised 0.5% annualized rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7% pace in the fourth quarter. The advance estimate had put GDP growth at 1.4%.Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, was revised down to a 1.9% pace from the previously reported 2.0% rate.
Corporate Profits
Brief News
Personal Income and Outlays
The personal consumption expenditure price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, met expectations in February with a rise of 0.4% that month and a year-over-year gain of 2.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, core PCE was in line as well.
The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the PCE index, has risen at an annualized pace of over 4% over the three months through February, with core PCE running above 4.5%. That’s hot, and it cannot dismissed as temporary distortion driven solely by tariff-impacted goods. In other words, the Fed had an inflation problem even before the Middle-East crisis. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%. In addition to the inflation readings, the report also showed consumer spending up 0.5% on the month, while personal income fell 0.1%.
Wholesale Inventories Pre
Brief News
Fed Balance Sheet
Brief News
Mortgage Rates
mmmm
CPI Inflation
Consumer prices spiked in March as the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and took the Federal Reserve further from its inflation target, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Underlying inflation, however, was relatively tame. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.3%, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The annual rate was the highest since April 2024 and up from 2.4% in February.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday. The university’s headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7% from the March survey to its lowest on record. Current conditions and expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines.
Factory Orders
Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Ira
S&P 500 Index
Brief News
VIX Volatility Index
Brief News
Geopolitical Risks
Tuesday night’s ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran saw energy prices slide on Wednesday, with investors piling into U.S. Treasurys as they ramped up bets on the potential for Fed rate cuts. Tensions remain, however, as the ceasefire appears increasingly fragile, with oil prices trading higher on Thursday. |
