10-Year Treasury Yield
Treasury yields move lower as investors look ahead to the Fed’s interest rate decision. U.S. Treasury yields fell at the start of the week as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and continued to monitor geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield was down by more than 2 basis points at 4.215%, while the 2-year Treasury note yield dipped less than 1 basis point to 3.598%. The 30-year Treasury yield fell more than 2 basis points to 4.804%.
Durable Goods Orders
US November durable goods orders 5.3% vs 3.2% expected. New orders for manufactured durable goods in November,2025 up three of the last four months, increased $16.4 billion or 5.3 percent to $323.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.1 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 6.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $15.3 billion or 14.7 percent to $119.3 billion.
CFNAI
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October which was the lowest in ten months, signalling that economic growth increased on the month. Production-related indicators contributed +0.08, up from -0.26 in October.The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI ) is a closely watched indicator that captures real-time economic momentum in the United States. Scheduled for release on January 26 , 2026 , the CFNAI data will cover the combined months of October and November 2025
Based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and related economic analysis, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that U.S. economic growth declined in October 2025, with the index falling to -0.42 from -0.21 in September. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI ) is a closely watched indicator that captures real-time economic momentum in the United States. Scheduled for release on January 26 , 2026 , the CFNAI data will cover the combined months of October and November 2025
US Dollar Index
The U.S. dollar has been in relative freefall since late Friday after it emerged that the New York Federal Reserve had conducted a rare “rate check” with currency traders on the dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate. The purpose of the move implies that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be considering coordinated action with the Bank of Japan to support the latter’s currency. As a result, traders began selling the dollar, which is now down more than 2.26% over the last five days against a standard basket of international currencies—an unusually steep decline given the gargantuan scale of the dollar in the global economy. Dollar slides to 4-month low on efforts to boost yen. It could hurt U.S. stocks. →
New Home Sales
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Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence measure hits lowest level since 2014 The consumer mood in January hit its lowest point in nearly 12 years, according to a Conference Board survey released Tuesday. The board’s headline consumer confidence index posted a reading of 84.5 for the month, well below the Dow Jones consensus outlook for 90.0. With an upward revision to the December number, the January reading represented a 9.7-point drop to its lowest level since May 2014.
Money Supply
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Earnings Season
Apple advanced nearly 2%, while Microsoft advanced 1.3%. More than 90 S&P 500 companies are slated to report quarterly earnings this week. Meta Platforms and Microsoft, as well as fellow “Magnificent Seven” giant Tesla , are all due Wednesday. Apple will share its results on Thursday.Top of mind is earnings season. We got 200 companies reporting in the next two weeks and so far, so good.
Boeing BA
Boeing reported strong earnings on Tuesday, posting both a beat on adjusted earnings per share and revenue as the company saw a 57% quarterly sales jump. Despite the CEO telling CNBC there’s “a lot to be optimistic about in 2026,” the stock fell 3% in morning trading. — The airplane maker gained 2% after reporting fourth quarter revenue of $23.95 billion, more than the $22.6 billion expected by analysts, according to LSEG. CEO Kelly Ortberg told staff there’s “a lot to be optimistic about.”. Here’s how Boeing performed in the fourth quarter, compared with analysts’ estimates compiled by LSEG: Earnings per share: $9.92 adjusted. That may not compare to an expected loss of 39 cents.
Revenue: $23.95 billion vs. $22.6 billion expected.
Crypto World Bitcoin
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MBA Mortgage Applications
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Durable Goods Orders
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US Trade Goods
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Retail Inv Adv
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Wholesale Inv Adv
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EIA Crude Oil Report
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FOMC Meeding
Looming this week is the Fed’s first policy decision of the year. The central bank is widely expected to keep its key rate at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but traders will search for clues on when future cuts may come. Fed funds futures trading still suggests there could be two quarter percentage point cuts by the end of 2026.
Hedging Gold
Gold and silver prices plunged Friday, as President Donald Trump’s nomination for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared to relieve concerns about the central bank’s independence and sent the dollar soaring.Bitcoin dips below $78,000 as market digests silver sell-off, Trump’s Fed chair pick
Jobless Initial Claims
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US Trade Balance
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Prod and Costs
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Personal Income
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Factory Orders
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Fed Balance Sheet
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Mortgage Rates
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PPI Index
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Chicago PMI
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S&P 500 Index
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VIX Volatility Index
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Geopolitical Risk
Trump picks Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed chair. Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980, gold tumbles as Warsh pick eases Fed independence fear Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980.Metals were also under pressure as the dollar spiked higher. Gold and silver prices plunged Friday, as President Donald Trump’s nomination for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared to relieve concerns about the central bank’s independence and sent the dollar soaring.Bitcoin dips below $78,000 as market digests silver sell-off, Trump’s Fed chair pick |
