10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed to start the week as investors weighed President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs, after the Supreme Court struck down much of the duties on Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield was down less than 1 basis point at 4.077%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was also less than 1 basis point lower at 4.723%.
CFNAI - Chicago Fed
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 in January from –0.21 in December. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from December, and two categories made positive contributions in January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.06 in January from –0.29 in December. The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.06 in January from –0.36 in December. Forty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 38 made negative contributions. Fifty-seven indicators improved from December to January, while 28 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 20 made negative contributions.
Factory Orders
US factory orders fall in December 2025 on commercial aircraft bookings. New orders for U.S. factory goods fell in December amid a sharp decline in commercial aircraft bookings, but demand elsewhere was strong, partly driven by robust investment in artificial intelligence. Factory orders dropped 0.7% after an unrevised 2.7% increase in November, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday.
US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index rises to near 97.85 as investors look beyond the US SC’s ruling against Trump’s tariff policy. US President Trump threatens additional levies if countries dishonour trade deals. Fed’s Waller supports holding interest rates steady in the March policy meeting.
Crypto World Bitcoin
Confidence in bitcoin has climbed sharply, supported by positive market momentum following President Trump’s State of the Union address. On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency rose to $66,200, coinciding with a notable increase in social confidence. antiment data highlights this shift, showing that bullish-to-bearish commentary across major social platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, has reached a four-week high. The increase reflects stronger positive engagement among retail participants.
Case Shiller
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.3% annual gain for December. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 1.9%, down from a 2.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, in line with the previous month.The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index saw a drop of 0.3%, and both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Indices decreased 0.1%.
FHFA House Price
U.S. house prices rose 1.8 percent between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Federal Housing (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose 0.8 percent compared to the third quarter of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December rose 0.1 percent from November. Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012
Consumer Confidence
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves In February As Pessimistic Expectations Ease. A report released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed an improvement in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of February. Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 91.2 in February from an upwardly revised 89.0 in January. Economists had expected the index to jump to 88.0 from the 84.5 originally reported for the previous month.
Money Supply
As of early 2026, the US M2 money supply has reached record highs, hovering around $22.4 trillion to $26.7 trillion depending on the specific, reported metric. After a brief contraction in 2022-2023, the money supply has surged by approximately $3.7 trillion since mid-2023, driven by rising bank deposits and money market fund inflows. This rapid growth indicates significant liquidity in the financial system.
MBA Mortgage Applications
Average U.S. long-term mortgage rate dips below 6% for the first time since 2022. Mortgage applications edged up 0.4%, following a 2.8% jump in the previous period, with refinancing applications rising 4.1%.The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.09% from 6.17% Applications to refinance a home loan increased 4% last week from the week before and were 150% higher than the same week one year ago. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week and were 12% higher year over year.
EIA Crude Oil Report
Crude oil and gasoline prices are mixed today. Today's bearish EIA inventory report is weighing on crude oil prices. However, dollar weakness and geopolitical risks are limiting losses in crude after President Trump said Iranian officials are "again pursuing their sinister nuclear ambitions," boosting speculation that the US may be preparing a military strike on Iran in the coming days.
Earnings NVDA
Nvidia reports earnings and guidance beat as AI boom pushes data center revenue up 75%. Nvidia reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, driven by 75% revenue growth in its core data center business. The stock rose initially rose in extended trading before paring most of its gains. Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:. Earnings per share: $1.62 adjusted vs. $1.53 estimated. Revenue: $68.13 billion vs. $66.21 billion estimated. Nvidia’s 5.5% loss on the day came to a surprise to many investors, who remain bullish on the chipmaker given its blowout fourth-quarter results and upcoming product cycle. Market participants attributed the decline in shares to doubts around Nvidia’s deal with OpenAI, weak sentiment over the artificial intelligence trade and concerns about hyperscalers’ lofty AI capital expenditures.
Hedging Gold
JP Morgan said late on Sunday it expects demand from central banks and investors to drive gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by year-end. Gold extended its fall on Monday to $4,677.17 per ounce, as of 0450 GMT, after falling more than 5% earlier in the session to hit its lowest in more than two weeks. Bullion had scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on Thursday.
Jobless Initial Claims
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased slightly last week and the unemployment rate appeared to hold steady in February amid a stable labor market. The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday suggested the labor market remained in a "low-hire, low-fire" state, and supported economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May.
Fed Balance Sheet
Schmidt has projected that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size is unlikely to revert to levels seen before the financial crisis. This expectation reflects ongoing economic adjustments and policy measures. The balance sheet expansion has been a significant aspect of the Fed's strategy in response to various economic challenges over the years.
Mortgage Rates
US mortgage rates slipped last week to the lowest level since 2022, generating more refinancing activity.The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage dropped 8 basis points to 6.09% in the week ended Feb. 20, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. The rate on five-year adjustable mortgages fell to 5.23%, also the lowest since September 2022.
PPI Inflation
Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%.On an all-items basis, headline PPI rose 0.5%, also above the forecast for 0.3% and 0.1 percentage point more than the prior month. For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%, while the headline index posted a 2.9% gain. The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, more than the 0.6% gain in December and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.3%.
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