10-Year Treasury Yield
As of Monday, April 13, 2026, CNBC reports that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged lower to 4.291%, a drop of over 2 basis points, as investors hoped for a U.S.-Iran deal amid ongoing Middle East tensions However, this followed a period of elevated volatility driven by geopolitical risks.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales were down 1.4% last month from February 2025. At the current sales pace, there is a 3.8-month supply of homes for sale. The median price of a home sold in February was $398,000, an increase of 0.3% year over year.Existing home sales in February rose 1.7% from January to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.09 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 1.4% from February of last year.
US Dollar Index
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PPI Inflation
Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact. The producer price index, a gauge of pipeline costs for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 1.1%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up just 0.1% against the forecast for 0.5%. On an annual basis, the all-items PPI accelerated 4%, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023. The core PPI posted a 3.8% annual gain.
Crypto World Bitcoin
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MBA Mortgage Applications
After rising for several weeks, mortgage rates moved decidedly lower last week, but not enough to make much of a difference in demand from current borrowers or potential homebuyers. Total mortgage application volume fell 1.4% for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. An additional adjustment was made for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Empire State Mfg index
he April 2026 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded, with the general business conditions index rising to 11.0, up from -0.2 in March. The survey shows new orders (19.3) and shipments (20.2) reached their highest levels since 2023, reflecting moderate growth after a stable period
Imports and Exports Prices
U.S. import prices increased 0.8% in March, after rising 0.9% in February, with higher nonfuel and fuel prices driving the increase, according to the most recent data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the year, import prices advanced 2.1% between March 2024 and March 2025, the largest 12-month increase since December 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices climbed 1.6% in March, driven by higher prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports. Over the past year, export prices rose 5.6%, the largest over-the-year increase since November 2022.
Housing Market Index
Builder confidence took a hit in April due to economic uncertainty and persistent affordability concerns. he National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 4 points from March to 34 this month, marking the 24th consecutive negative reading. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 37. In April, current sales jumped to their highest level since January 2025, while future sales and buyer traffic retreated.
EIA Crude Oil Report
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Beige Book
Fed’s Beige Book Reveals America’s Biggest Fear: Iran War Uncertainty Overshadows Tariffs. The Beige Book clearly states that the Middle East conflict is widely seen as a major source of uncertainty, seriously disrupting business decisions around hiring, pricing, and capital investment. Many companies have adopted a “wait-and-see” posture, which acts as a substantial drag on economic growth. Economists generally agree that regardless of its source, uncertainty inevitably leads businesses to delay hiring and expansion plans and consumers to hold off on spending until the situation clarifies – this is the real risk facing the U.S. economy today.It is important to emphasize that the Beige Book’s data collection window closed on April 6, the day before the US and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement. Therefore, the report does not incorporate the optimism expressed in financial markets following the ceasefire news. Although the market reaction suggests the conflict might end swiftly, the reality remains far from clear: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains choked, keeping upward pressure on oil and other key commodities shipped from the Persian Gulf.
Hedging Gold
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Jobless Initial Claims
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended April 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week. Claims are in the lower end of their 201,000-230,000 range for this year. While layoffs remain low, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran could be hindering hiring. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on Wednesday showed "several districts noted increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as firms remained cautious about committing to permanent hires."
Philadelphia Fed Mfg index
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has shown a positive trend, with the latest data indicating a significant improvement in the manufacturing sector. The index rose to 26.7 in April 2026, marking its highest level since January 2025. This increase in the index suggests a positive outlook for the manufacturing industry in the Philadelphia region, which is a key indicator of overall economic health. The index's rise is expected to have a positive impact on the US Dollar (USD), as a higher than expected reading is generally perceived as bullish for the USD.
Industrial Production
Industrial production in the U.S. slipped in March but was higher for the first quarter overall, according to the latest report on production and industrial capacity from the Federal Reserve. industrial production dropped 0.5% from February’s index but was up at an annual rate of 2.4% for the quarter; production was 0.7% above the level from March of 2025. The report also showed a drop of 0.1% in manufacturing output from February to March but a 3% increase across the quarter. Durable goods production was down 0.2% amid declines in motor vehicles and parts, primary metals and machinery. Nondurable goods production was down 0.1% with declines in every category except petroleum and coal products, plastics and rubber, and paper.
Fed Balance Sheet
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Mortgage Rates
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.32% from 6.40%, with points falling to 0.58 from 0.60, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor market and declining consumer confidence.
S&P 500 Index
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VIX Volatility Index
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Geopolitical Risks
A surge in oil prices and the accompanying rise in inflation pressures because of the conflict have pushed consumer sentiment to record lows, and economists warned households could scale back spending, with ripple effects on the labor market. Some anticipated labor market weakness due to the oil price shock. At some point, elevated energy costs and prices for materials will cause firms to lay off marginal workers to protect profit margins. |
