10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields moved lower on Monday following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by more than 3 basis points to 4.155%. The 2-year Treasury note was down more than 2 basis points at 3.453%.
ISM Manufacturing index
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 has shown a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the index falling to 47.9%. This marks the lowest reading of 2025 and the 10th consecutive month of contraction for the industry. The production index fell 0.4 points from the previous month but remained in expansion territory at 51.0%. The new orders and employment indexes increased to 47.7% and 44.9%, respectively, indicating contraction at a slower rate than in November. Despite the contraction, there are positive signs for December, such as improvements in new orders, backlog of orders, and new export orders, and the customers’ inventories index remaining in ‘too low’ territory. However, several consecutive months of gains in these indicators are necessary for a longer-term recover. US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell for a third month to 47.9 in December, the lowest since October 2024.
US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index struggles near 98.00 as US-Venezuela tensions ease US Dollar Index declines as traders largely shrug off US–Venezuela tensions. he US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is extending its losses for the second successive session and trading around 98.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Greenback struggles as concerns about a broader geopolitical escalation ease. Markets are largely brushing aside tensions between the United States (US) and Venezuela.
PMI Services Final
US private activity growth in December was revised down to its lowest rate in eight months, according to S&P Global, with both the manufacturing and services sectors slowing over the month. The final estimate of the S&P Global US composite purchasing managers' index came in at 52.7 last month, down from the initial reading of 53.0 and the 54.2 mark registered in November. This was the lowest rate of growth – indicated by any reading above 50 – since April.The services PMI was revised to 52.5 from 52.9, well below the 54.1 recorded in November, also marking an eight-month low.
Crypto World Bitcoin
As of, 5 January 2026, Bitcoin is trading at around $92.5k after briefly surging to $93,000 earlier today. Furthermore, Ethereum pushed above $3200 before dipping slightly. Altcoins such as XRP, Dogecoin, Chainlink, Stellar, and Hyperliquid registered gains
MBA Mortgage Applications
For the week ending January 2, 2026 (reported on Jan 7), total MBA mortgage applications decreased 9.7% from two weeks earlier, reflecting a slow start to the year. This survey covered a two-week period including the holidays, showing a 6.2% drop in purchase applications and a significant dip in overall demand.
ADP Employment Report
ADP: Employment rose by 41K jobs in December, less than predicted. Private-sector employment rose in December, though the rise was lower than expected, ADP reported Wednesday. There were 41,000 jobs added for the month, which reverses the 29,000 loss for November, bringing cautious hope to the market that struggled near the end of the year. Payrolls declined in the previous three months before ADP's December report.
Factory Orders
Actual -1.3% for Oct. 2025: Delayed.
ISM Service index
US private activity growth in December was revised down to its lowest rate in eight months, according to S&P Global, with both the manufacturing and services sectors slowing over the month. The final estimate of the S&P Global US composite purchasing managers' index came in at 52.7 last month, down from the initial reading of 53.0 and the 54.2 mark registered in Novemb The U.S. ISM Services Index rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November, compared with the 52.2 consensus, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday.US ISM Services PMI improves to 54.4 in December
JOLTS
A new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reinforced that Americans are in a low-hire, low-fire labor market. The labor market is strong but weakening, labor economist Aaron Sojourner said. Employers are hesitant to make big changes in the face of huge amounts of uncertainty about policy and technology, he said. Businesses aren’t willing to commit to expanded payrolls, unsure if expansion will lead to higher profits. The JOLTS, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, for November showed job openings and hires were down from October. The number of job openings didn’t change much in November at 7.1 million, down 303,000 from a revised October.
EIA Crude Oil Report
In our January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production next year will remain near the record 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) produced in 2025 before decreasing 2% to 13.3 million b/d in 2027. If realized, a fall in annual U.S. crude oil production will mark the first since 2021
Hedging Gold
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday as investors booked profits after a recent rally, though it pared some losses after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data bolstered bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Jobless Initial Claims
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week amid a relatively low number of layoffs, though demand for labor remained sluggish, with businesses squeezing more output from their existing workforce.
US Trade Balance
On January 8, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. goods and services trade deficit for October 2025 dropped to $29.4 billion, the lowest level since June 2009. This sharp 39% decrease from September's $48.1 billion resulted from a 3.2% decline in imports ($331.4 billion) alongside a 2.6% increase in exports ($302.0 billion), largely driven by falling pharmaceutical and gold imports.
Productivity and Cost
Labor Productivity: Increased at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, driven by a 5.4% increase in output and a 0.5% rise in hours worked. This was a significant jump from the upwardly revised 4.1% growth in the second quarter. Unit Labor Costs: Decreased by 1.9% in the third quarter. This decline, following a drop in the previous quarter, marks the first back-to-back decline in unit labor costs since 2019. and Costs
Wholesale Inventos (Pre)
Actual 0.2% for Oct 2025
Consumer Credit
Actual $-4.2B for Nov. 2025
Fed Balance Sheet
Actual Total Assets W/W $ -67.016 B
Mortgage Rates
The average rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.24% last week, down from 6.25% the previous week, according to Bankrate’s latest lender survey. Since mortgage rates hit a 2025 low of 6.25% in late October, they haven’t changed much.
Mortgage rates drop below 6% for the first time in 3 years as Trump official says purchases of mortgage bonds are starting. President Donald Trump’s proposal that “representatives” buy up $200 billion in mortgage bonds pushed mortgage rates down to the lowest level in nearly two years on Friday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which most home buyers use to finance their purchase, fell 22 basis points to 5.99%, according to a daily survey by Mortgage News Daily. That’s the first time since February 2023 that the 30-year mortgage rate has gone below 6%.
Non Farm Payroll
US. payrolls rose 50,000 in December, less than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 in December, lower than the downwardly revised 56,000 in November and short of the Dow Jones estimate for 73,000.Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 50,000 for the month, lower than the downwardly revised 56,000 in November and short of the Dow Jones estimate for 73,000.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, compared with the forecast for 4.5%. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed dropped to 8.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month, in line with the forecast, although the annual increase of 3.8% was 0.2 percentage point higher than expected.
Housing Starts
The reports were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. US October housing starts 1.246m vs 1.325m expected. This is still old data as government shutdown in October delayed many key economic reports. The last report was in September where it showed housing starts falling to the lowest level since May 2025. Today's data is the lowest since the Covid pandemic.
Building Permits
The reports were delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. Building permits 1.412m vs 1.350m expected. U.S. single-family homebuilding rebounded in October, but permits for future construction eased, signaling caution among builders as new housing inventory remains high and demand soft.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates drop below 6% for the first time in 3 years as Trump official says purchases of mortgage bonds are starting
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index ended +1.07%.
VIX Volatility Index
Vix ended -4.49% that is positive.
Geopolitical Risk
Jerome Powell under criminal investigation over the Fed's refusal to cut interest rates.
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