10-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Treasury yields were up to begin the week as investors looked ahead to a flurry of economic data, including the delayed January jobs report. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields move higher as investors await busy week of economic data. the 10-year Treasury yield was up 2.6 basis points to 4.232%, and the 30-year Treasury yield was 2.7 basis points higher at 4.882%.
Import and Export Prices
Dec 2025 at 01% Import Prices and 0.3% Export Prices.The BLS also reported that import prices rose 0.1% in December, against a forecast decrease of 0.1%, and were unchanged from a year ago. Export prices increased 0.3% and were up 3.1% annually.
Employment Cost Index
Q4 of 2025 at 07%. The employment cost index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.7% increase for the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, below the 0.8% forecast. For the year, total compensation costs rose 3.4%, or a bit above the inflation rate. The quarterly rate was the slowest gain since Q3 of 2020.
Retail Sales
Disappointing holiday season: December retail sales were flat, falling well short of estimate. Retail sales were flat in December following a 0.6% increase in November. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 0.4%. On an annual basis, sales rose 2.4%, failing to keep up with inflation, as the consumer price index for December posted a 2.7% increase.Consumer activity slowed sharply for the December holiday shopping season amid a spate of rough weather, tariff impact and persistently higher inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Business Inventories
For Nov 2025 at 0.1% prior 0.3%. Business inventories in November 2025 came in at nearly $2.68 trillion, up 0.1% from the month prior and up 1.2% from a year ago, the Commerce Department said. Trade sales and manufacturers' shipments were $1.95 trillion, up 0.6% from the month prior but up 3.5% from a year ago
US Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a slight decline last Friday evening, settling at 97.63, although it showed a weekly increase, reversing the downward trend of the previous two weeks. U.S. Dollar Index Shows Slight Decline Amid Strong Dollar Policy.
Crypto World Bitcoin
Shares of Robinhood fell in after-hours trade on Tuesday, after caution on crypto trading weighed on the trading app’s fourth-quarter sales and the company forecast a big jump in spending for the coming year. Bitcoin bounce fades as it drops back down to just under $67,000. Bitcoin has remained volatile, recovering from its early February low to $70,000 before falling back down under that mark. Bitcoin plunged to its lowest level since 2024 after famed Bitcoin was last trading around $63,458, down more than 13%. Gold fell another 2.5%, to about $4,826 an ounce. Michael Burry wrote that the cryptocurrency’s falling price could "set in motion a death spiral leading to massive value destruction." Burry, whose correct call about the 2008 financial crisis was profiled in the movie “The Big Short,” said that some investors may be forced to liquidate other assets to cover their losses.
MBA Mortgage Applications
Total mortgage application volume increased 0.3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Applications to refinance a home loan rose 1% for the week and were 101% higher than the same week one year ago. Mortgage rates were 74 basis points higher a year ago. Most lenders say if a borrower can save 75 basis points, then the cost of the refinance is worthwhile. FHA purchase and refinance applications increased, helped partially by the FHA rate declining and remaining 20 basis points lower than the conforming 30-year fixed rate.
Employment
The nonfarm payrolls report for January, which was initially scheduled for last Friday, but which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will now release on Wednesday morning. The report is forecast to show a gain of 60,000 jobs for the month, after a 50,000 increase in December, per economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.4%.
EIA Crude Oil Report
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Treasury Budget
US federal government's budget posts $95B deficit in January. Country's total budget deficit for first 4 months of 2026 fiscal year reaches $697B, down 17% year-on-year. The US federal government's budget deficit reached $95 billion in January, marking a 26% decline year-on-year, according to data from the Treasury Department released Wednesday.The federal government had a budget deficit of $129 billion in January 2025. Market expectations for the budget balance during this period were for a deficit of $94.6 billion.The US federal government's budget deficit reached $95 billion in January, marking a 26% decline year-on-year, according to data from the Treasury Department released Wednesd
Earnings MCD
McDonald’s earnings beat estimates as chain’s value push pays off. McDonald’s reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations as its value push wins back customers.Here’s what the company reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG. Earnings per share: $3.12 adjusted vs. $3.05 expected Revenue: $7 billion vs. $6.84 billion expected. McDonald’s
on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations as its value push wins back customers
Hedging Gold
McDonald
Jobless Initial Claims
Low jobless claims point to further decline in unemployment rate and improved labor market. The U.S. unemployment rate fell in January for a second straight month, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise. The number of people who applied for jobless benefits also sank to a two-year low last month — and there’s no sign layoffs are about to surge. Initial jobless claims declined by 5,000 to 227,000 in the seven days that ended Feb. 7, the government said, nudging them back down toward recent lows.
Existing Home Sales
Existing-home sales fell 8.4% in January 2026. Month-over-month and year-over-year sales decreased in all regions. Existing-home sales down over 8%, according to report. US existing home sales drop to more than two-year low in January. U.S. existing home sales tumbled to the lowest level in more than two years in January as falling inventory raised house prices. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales declining to a rate of 4.18 million units. Home sales dropped 8.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units, the lowest level since December 2023,
Fed Balance Sheet
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Copper
After rallying through 2025 (not without some deep troughs) and into this year driven by supply disruptions in Indonesia and South America alongside tariff disruptions, copper prices are pulling back again Copper for March delivery fell over 3% in New York to $5.78 a pound or $12,740 a tonne on Thursday and is now trading 12% below highs hit just over two weeks ago.
Mortgage Rates
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, remained unchanged at 6.21%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.56, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.
CPI Inflation
The January consumer price index reading, also delayed by the shutdown, is due out on Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones except that the annual inflation rate eased to 2.5%. The consumer price index for January accelerated 2.4% from the same time a year ago, down 0.3 percentage point from the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That pulled the inflation rate down to where it was the month after President Donald Trump in April 2025 announced aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports. Excluding food and energy, core CPI also was up 2.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an annual rate of 2.5% for both readings. On a monthly basis, the all-items index was up a seasonally adjusted 0.2% while core gained 0.3%. The forecast had been 0.3% for both.
S&P 500 Index
The median forecast among Wall Street analysts says the benchmark S&P 500 will advance 18% to 8,200 in the next year, according to FactSet Research. As of February 10, only two stock market sectors are projected to outperform the S&P 500 during that period. The information technology and consumer discretionary sectors will add 33% and 22%, respectively, according to the median target prices set by analysts. Investors can get exposure to those sectors with the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (
VGT) and the Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)
VIX Volatility Index
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Geopolitical Risk
Trump administration has taken control of Venezuela’s oil sales after capturing Nicolás Maduro. President Trump’s tariffs have led to a surge in revenue for the government: importers affected. |
