Week 06-2023 | Rating

Week 06-2023 | Chart

Week 06-2023 | News

10-Year Treasury Yield

U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Monday as investors assessed the economic outlook and awaited a series of data releases and Federal Reserve speaker remarks slated for the week. At 5:35 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 7 basis points at 3.603%. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading at 4.401% after climbing 10 basis points.Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.

iNTERNATIONAL tRADE

The U.S. international trade deficit in 2022 rose to an all-time high for the third year in a row, largely because of higher oil prices and Americans’ strong appetite for new cars, cell phones and other consumer goods. The trade gap jumped 12.2% to $948.1 billion from $845.1 billion in the prior year. Just six years ago, the deficit was half the size. The U.S. has run large trade deficits for years and it’s usually doesn’t have much impact on the economy’s performance. Yet some big ups and downs in the trade gap last year also produced large swings in gross domestic product. In December, the trade deficit rose 10.5% to $67.4 billion. Both imports and exports softened toward the end of the year in a sign of economic weakness at home and abroad. U.S. imports increased 1.3% in December to $317.6 billion. Exports slipped 0.9% to $250.2 billion, reflecting lower petroleum prices. The cost of oil fell sharply toward the end of 2022. For the full year, imports jumped 16% to $3.96 trillion. Exports increased 17.7% in 2022 to a record $3 trillion. The deficit widened in 2022 with China and Mexico, the two biggest trading partners of the U.S.

Consumer Credit

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MBA Purchase Applications

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Jobless Initial Claims

On Thursday, the weekly jobless claims reading came in at 196,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week. Many investors saw this as a sign that the job market could be easing, which has been one of the Fed’s policy aims as it has worked to cool the economy.

CPI

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Treasury Statement

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Import and Export Prices

U.S. import-price index rises for first time in six months

Cosumer Sentiment

U.S. consumer sentiment improved to a 13-month high in February, but households expected higher inflation to persist over the next 12 months, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan's preliminary February reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 66.4, the highest reading since January 2022, up from 64.9 in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 65.0. The sentiment index has rebounded from a low of 50.0 in June last year. The survey's measure of current economic conditions increased to a reading of 72.6 this month from 68.4 in January. Its gauge of consumer expectations dipped to 62.3 from a reading of 62.7 last month, likely reflecting lingering recession fears. The improvement in sentiment was probably driven by a rally on the stock market and persistent labor market strength. It raised hope that the economy could avoid the much-feared recession and that any downturn would likely be short and mild, economists said. Rising sentiment also suggested that the sharp declines in retail sales in November and December were a fluke.

Fixed Mortgage Rates

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